PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Rubin Kazan 1–0 Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Rubin Kazan won 1–0.

Shots
149
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.160.72
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rubin Kazan beat Baltika Kaliningrad 1–0. Recorded in this match (Rubin Kazan – Baltika Kaliningrad): shots 14–9, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.16–0.72, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Rubin Kazan's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rubin Kazan's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.29 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.7 fouls/matchFoulsRubin Kazan · Baltika Kaliningrad13.4 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricRubin KazanBaltika KaliningradBaseline
Fouls13.7 fouls/match13.4 fouls/match11.8 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots9 shotsRubin Kazan 14 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsRubin Kazan 4 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.16 xG0.72 xGRubin Kazan 1.16 xG, Baltika Kaliningrad 0.72 xG
  • Possession58%42%Rubin Kazan 58%, Baltika Kaliningrad 42%
  • Corners13 corners5 cornersRubin Kazan 13 corners, Baltika Kaliningrad 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls14 foulsRubin Kazan 9 fouls, Baltika Kaliningrad 14 fouls

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Rubin Kazan favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Baltika Kaliningrad in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Rubin Kazan13 matchesBaltika Kaliningrad13 matches
0.92 goals/matchGoals scored13/130.92 goals/match
1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 1.46 goals/match
1.51 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/131.03 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots13/1311.2 shots/match
4.31 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/133.62 shots/match
46.8% ●Possession13/1345.7%
4.85 corners/match ●Corners13/134.38 corners/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls13/1313.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 27 Oct 2023, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRubin KazanBaltika Kaliningrad
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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