PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

FK Krasnodar 2–1 Orenburg · Premier League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FK Krasnodar won 2–1.

Shots
1110
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
1.20.54
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

FK Krasnodar beat Orenburg 2–1. Recorded in this match (FK Krasnodar – Orenburg): shots 11–10, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 1.2–0.54, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FK Krasnodar's recent record differs from the season

weak

FK Krasnodar's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.59 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.59 goals/match1.24 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots10 shotsFK Krasnodar 11 shots, Orenburg 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsFK Krasnodar 4 shots, Orenburg 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.2 xG0.54 xGFK Krasnodar 1.2 xG, Orenburg 0.54 xG
  • Possession55%45%FK Krasnodar 55%, Orenburg 45%
  • Corners7 corners0 cornersFK Krasnodar 7 corners, Orenburg 0 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 foulsFK Krasnodar 13 fouls, Orenburg 15 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2FK Krasnodar
0Draws
1Orenburg
Orenburg — FK Krasnodar · Premier League0–2
Orenburg — FK Krasnodar · Premier League5–1
FK Krasnodar — Orenburg · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FK Krasnodar favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Orenburg in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FK Krasnodar17 matchesOrenburg17 matches
1.59 goals/match ▲Goals scored17/171.06 goals/match
0.82 goals/match ▲Goals allowed17/171.59 goals/match
1.91 xG/match ▲Expected goals16/171.57 xG/match
12.2 shots/matchShots17/17▲ 14 shots/match
4.59 shots/matchShots on target17/174.47 shots/match
55.6%Possession17/17● 56.1%
5.06 corners/matchCorners17/17● 5.71 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls17/1711.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples17 / 17home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Dec 2023, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFK KrasnodarOrenburg
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headFK Krasnodar — Orenburg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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