PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Baltika Kaliningrad 0–1 Rubin Kazan · Premier League

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Rubin Kazan won 0–1.

Shots
1210
Shots on target
26
Expected goals
1.460.82
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Rubin Kazan beat Baltika Kaliningrad 1–0. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – Rubin Kazan): shots 12–10, shots on target 2–6, expected goals 1.46–0.82, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots10 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 12 shots, Rubin Kazan 10 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots6 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 2 shots, Rubin Kazan 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.46 xG0.82 xGBaltika Kaliningrad 1.46 xG, Rubin Kazan 0.82 xG
  • Possession56%44%Baltika Kaliningrad 56%, Rubin Kazan 44%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerBaltika Kaliningrad 7 corners, Rubin Kazan 1 corner
  • Fouls10 fouls9 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 10 fouls, Rubin Kazan 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Baltika Kaliningrad
0Draws
1Rubin Kazan
Rubin Kazan — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Rubin Kazan in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad18 matchesRubin Kazan18 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored18/18▲ 0.94 goals/match
1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed18/18▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals18/18▲ 1.41 xG/match
10.4 shots/matchShots18/18▲ 12.7 shots/match
3.06 shots/matchShots on target18/18▲ 4.33 shots/match
46.3% ●Possession18/1845.7%
4.83 corners/match ●Corners18/184.61 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Dec 2023, 20:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradRubin Kazan
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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