PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Orenburg 1–0 Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Orenburg won 1–0.

Shots
914
Shots on target
36
Expected goals
1.572.18
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Orenburg beat Baltika Kaliningrad 1–0. Recorded in this match (Orenburg – Baltika Kaliningrad): shots 9–14, shots on target 3–6, expected goals 1.57–2.18, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0 goals/match0.6 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Orenburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.5% ●PossessionOrenburg · Baltika Kaliningrad46.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOrenburgBaltika KaliningradBaseline
Possession55.5%46.2%49.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots14 shotsOrenburg 9 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 14 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots6 shotsOrenburg 3 shots, Baltika Kaliningrad 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.57 xG2.18 xGOrenburg 1.57 xG, Baltika Kaliningrad 2.18 xG
  • Possession50%50%Orenburg 50%, Baltika Kaliningrad 50%
  • Corners1 corner3 cornersOrenburg 1 corner, Baltika Kaliningrad 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls13 foulsOrenburg 11 fouls, Baltika Kaliningrad 13 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Orenburg
0Draws
1Baltika Kaliningrad
Baltika Kaliningrad — Orenburg · Premier League1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orenburg favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Baltika Kaliningrad in 6

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orenburg20 matchesBaltika Kaliningrad20 matches
1.05 goals/match ▲Goals scored20/200.6 goals/match
1.45 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.5 xG/match ▲Expected goals20/201.11 xG/match
13.2 shots/match ▲Shots20/2010.7 shots/match
4.25 shots/match ▲Shots on target20/203.15 shots/match
55.5% ●Possession20/2046.2%
5.2 corners/match ●Corners20/204.75 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls20/2013.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrenburgBaltika Kaliningrad
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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