PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Baltika Kaliningrad 2–0 Nizhny Novgorod · Premier League

2–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Baltika Kaliningrad won 2–0.

Shots
1415
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.870.63
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Baltika Kaliningrad beat Pari Nizhny Novgorod 2–0. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – Pari Nizhny Novgorod): shots 14–15, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.87–0.63, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.67 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.67 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Pari Nizhny Novgorod show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Pari Nizhny Novgorod's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.9 shots/match ▲ShotsBaltika Kaliningrad · Pari Nizhny Novgorod9.57 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradPari Nizhny NovgorodBaseline
Shots10.9 shots/match9.57 shots/match12.5 shots/match
Shots against11.9 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsBaltika Kaliningrad · Pari Nizhny Novgorod13.2 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBaltika KaliningradPari Nizhny NovgorodBaseline
Fouls13.3 fouls/match13.2 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots15 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 14 shots, Nizhny Novgorod 15 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 4 shots, Nizhny Novgorod 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.87 xG0.63 xGBaltika Kaliningrad 1.87 xG, Nizhny Novgorod 0.63 xG
  • Possession48%52%Baltika Kaliningrad 48%, Nizhny Novgorod 52%
  • Corners3 corners9 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 3 corners, Nizhny Novgorod 9 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls9 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 16 fouls, Nizhny Novgorod 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Baltika Kaliningrad
1Draws
0Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League0–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Nizhny Novgorod in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad21 matchesNizhny Novgorod21 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored21/21▲ 0.81 goals/match
1.19 goals/matchGoals allowed21/21▲ 0.9 goals/match
1.15 xG/match ▲Expected goals21/200.94 xG/match
10.9 shots/match ▲Shots21/219.57 shots/match
3.19 shots/match ▲Shots on target21/212.81 shots/match
46.2% ●Possession21/2140.2%
4.67 corners/match ●Corners21/212.86 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls21/2113.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples21 / 21home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradNizhny Novgorod
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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