PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Orenburg 3–0 Rubin Kazan · Premier League

3–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Orenburg won 3–0.

Shots
147
Shots on target
51
Expected goals
1.040.64
Possession
55%45%

Full time

What the match recorded

Orenburg beat Rubin Kazan 3–0. Recorded in this match (Orenburg – Rubin Kazan): shots 14–7, shots on target 5–1, expected goals 1.04–0.64, possession 55%–45%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orenburg's recent record differs from the season

weak

Orenburg's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Orenburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

55.5% ●PossessionOrenburg · Rubin Kazan46.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOrenburgRubin KazanBaseline
Possession55.5%46.5%49.3%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots7 shotsOrenburg 14 shots, Rubin Kazan 7 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots1 shotOrenburg 5 shots, Rubin Kazan 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.04 xG0.64 xGOrenburg 1.04 xG, Rubin Kazan 0.64 xG
  • Possession55%45%Orenburg 55%, Rubin Kazan 45%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersOrenburg 5 corners, Rubin Kazan 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls9 foulsOrenburg 12 fouls, Rubin Kazan 9 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Orenburg
1Draws
0Rubin Kazan
Rubin Kazan — Orenburg · Premier League1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orenburg favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Rubin Kazan in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orenburg22 matchesRubin Kazan22 matches
1.09 goals/match ▲Goals scored22/220.91 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.43 xG/match ▲Expected goals22/221.32 xG/match
13.1 shots/match ▲Shots22/2212.2 shots/match
4.18 shots/matchShots on target22/224.09 shots/match
55.5% ●Possession22/2246.5%
5.27 corners/match ●Corners22/224.45 corners/match
11.8 fouls/matchFouls22/2213.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 8 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrenburgRubin Kazan
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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