PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Orenburg 3–1 Nizhny Novgorod · Premier League

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Orenburg won 3–1.

Shots
1216
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
2.091.61
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Orenburg beat Pari Nizhny Novgorod 3–1. Recorded in this match (Orenburg – Pari Nizhny Novgorod): shots 12–16, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 2.09–1.61, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Orenburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Orenburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.17 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Orenburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

55% ●PossessionOrenburg · Pari Nizhny Novgorod41%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOrenburgPari Nizhny NovgorodBaseline
Possession55%41%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots16 shotsOrenburg 12 shots, Nizhny Novgorod 16 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsOrenburg 6 shots, Nizhny Novgorod 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.09 xG1.61 xGOrenburg 2.09 xG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.61 xG
  • Possession44%56%Orenburg 44%, Nizhny Novgorod 56%
  • Corners5 corners13 cornersOrenburg 5 corners, Nizhny Novgorod 13 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls15 foulsOrenburg 14 fouls, Nizhny Novgorod 15 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Orenburg
0Draws
1Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod — Orenburg · Premier League3–1
Orenburg — Nizhny Novgorod · Premier League1–0
Nizhny Novgorod — Orenburg · Premier League0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orenburg favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Nizhny Novgorod in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orenburg23 matchesNizhny Novgorod23 matches
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals scored23/230.91 goals/match
1.3 goals/matchGoals allowed23/23▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.46 xG/match ▲Expected goals23/210.97 xG/match
13 shots/match ▲Shots23/2310.3 shots/match
4.26 shots/match ▲Shots on target23/233.13 shots/match
55% ●Possession23/2341%
5.26 corners/match ●Corners23/233.52 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls23/2313.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples23 / 23home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrenburgNizhny Novgorod
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
Head-to-headOrenburg — Nizhny Novgorod
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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