PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Baltika Kaliningrad 2–1 Krylya Sovetov Samara · Premier League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Baltika Kaliningrad won 2–1.

Shots
209
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
2.791.47
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Baltika Kaliningrad beat Krylya Sovetov Samara 2–1. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – Krylya Sovetov Samara): shots 20–9, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 2.79–1.47, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.96 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match0.96 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots9 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 20 shots, Krylya Sovetov Samara 9 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 5 shots, Krylya Sovetov Samara 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.79 xG1.47 xGBaltika Kaliningrad 2.79 xG, Krylya Sovetov Samara 1.47 xG
  • Possession49%51%Baltika Kaliningrad 49%, Krylya Sovetov Samara 51%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 4 corners, Krylya Sovetov Samara 3 corners
  • Fouls21 fouls5 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 21 fouls, Krylya Sovetov Samara 5 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Baltika Kaliningrad
0Draws
1Krylya Sovetov Samara
Krylya Sovetov Samara — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Krylya Sovetov Samara in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad24 matchesKrylya Sovetov Samara24 matches
0.96 goals/matchGoals scored24/24▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed24/241.46 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals24/21▲ 1.74 xG/match
11.3 shots/matchShots24/2410.8 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target24/24▲ 4.83 shots/match
45.9%Possession24/24● 48.4%
4.63 corners/matchCorners24/24● 4.75 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls24/249.08 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples24 / 24home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradKrylya Sovetov Samara
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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