PitchMath
Premier League · 2023

Baltika Kaliningrad 2–3 Dynamo Moscow · Premier League

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Dynamo Moscow won 2–3.

Shots
1419
Shots on target
27
Expected goals
1.143.07
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Dynamo Moscow beat Baltika Kaliningrad 3–2. Recorded in this match (Baltika Kaliningrad – Dynamo Moscow): shots 14–19, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 1.14–3.07, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Baltika Kaliningrad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Baltika Kaliningrad's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.11 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.11 goals/match1.25 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots19 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 14 shots, Dynamo Moscow 19 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots7 shotsBaltika Kaliningrad 2 shots, Dynamo Moscow 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.14 xG3.07 xGBaltika Kaliningrad 1.14 xG, Dynamo Moscow 3.07 xG
  • Possession48%52%Baltika Kaliningrad 48%, Dynamo Moscow 52%
  • Corners3 corners2 cornersBaltika Kaliningrad 3 corners, Dynamo Moscow 2 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls8 foulsBaltika Kaliningrad 12 fouls, Dynamo Moscow 8 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Baltika Kaliningrad
0Draws
1Dynamo Moscow
Dynamo Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad · Premier League2–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Baltika Kaliningrad favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Dynamo Moscow in 6 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Baltika Kaliningrad28 matchesDynamo Moscow28 matches
1.11 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed28/281.32 goals/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals28/27▲ 1.92 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots28/28▲ 15.6 shots/match
3.54 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲ 5.43 shots/match
45.6%Possession28/28● 49.5%
4.68 corners/matchCorners28/28● 5.5 corners/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls28/2811.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 11 May 2024, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBaltika KaliningradDynamo Moscow
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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