PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Orenburg 2–1 Dinamo Makhachkala · Premier League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Orenburg won 2–1.

Shots
109
Shots on target
42
Expected goals
1.340.62
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Orenburg beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2–1. Recorded in this match (Orenburg – Dinamo Makhachkala): shots 10–9, shots on target 4–2, expected goals 1.34–0.62, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Dinamo Makhachkala's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Dinamo Makhachkala's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.92 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match0.92 goals/match1.23 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Orenburg have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.1% ●PossessionOrenburg · Dinamo Makhachkala40.9%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOrenburgDinamo MakhachkalaBaseline
Possession51.1%40.9%49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots9 shotsOrenburg 10 shots, Dinamo Makhachkala 9 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots2 shotsOrenburg 4 shots, Dinamo Makhachkala 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.34 xG0.62 xGOrenburg 1.34 xG, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.62 xG
  • Possession58%42%Orenburg 58%, Dinamo Makhachkala 42%
  • Corners7 corners4 cornersOrenburg 7 corners, Dinamo Makhachkala 4 corners
  • Fouls20 fouls14 foulsOrenburg 20 fouls, Dinamo Makhachkala 14 fouls

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Orenburg
0Draws
1Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala — Orenburg · Premier League2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Orenburg favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Dinamo Makhachkala in 5 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Orenburg25 matchesDinamo Makhachkala25 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored25/250.92 goals/match
1.84 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.12 goals/match
1.52 xG/match ▲Expected goals17/161.1 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots18/1811.3 shots/match
3.78 shots/match ▲Shots on target18/183.56 shots/match
51.1% ●Possession18/1840.9%
6.61 corners/match ●Corners18/185.11 corners/match
14.8 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Apr 2025, 13:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOrenburgDinamo Makhachkala
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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