PitchMath
Serie A · 2026

Milan 3–0 Lecce · Serie A

Milan

WWDD
3–0Full-time analysis

Lecce

WLLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Milan won 3–0.

Shots
106
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.930.17
Possession
69%31%

Full time

What the match recorded

Milan beat Lecce 3–0. Recorded in this match (Milan – Lecce): shots 10–6, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.93–0.17, possession 69%–31%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lecce show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lecce's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsMilan · Lecce8.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMilanLecceBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match8.4 shots/match14 shots/match
Shots against9 shots/match16.6 shots/match15.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

60.6% ●PossessionMilan · Lecce38.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 22.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricMilanLecceBaseline
Possession60.6%38.6%48.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots6 shotsMilan 10 shots, Lecce 6 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsMilan 4 shots, Lecce 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.93 xG0.17 xGMilan 1.93 xG, Lecce 0.17 xG
  • Possession69%31%Milan 69%, Lecce 31%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersMilan 2 corners, Lecce 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls15 foulsMilan 9 fouls, Lecce 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardMilan 0 cards, Lecce 1 card
  • Passes699 passes310 passesMilan 699 passes, Lecce 310 passes
  • Pass accuracy91.3%81.6%Milan 91.3%, Lecce 81.6%
  • Shots inside box8 shots4 shotsMilan 8 shots, Lecce 4 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks2 blocksMilan 4 blocks, Lecce 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves3 saves1 saveMilan 3 saves, Lecce 1 save
  • Offsides4 offsides1 offsideMilan 4 offsides, Lecce 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 14′Christian PulišićGoal · Milan
  2. Half-time
  3. 58′Danilo VeigaYellow card · Lecce
  4. 61′Adrien RabiotGoal · Milan
  5. 73′Diego MoreiraGoal · Milan
  6. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Lecce · 1 player changePaco Esteban
  • 69′Milan · 2 player changesDiego Moreira · Ruben Loftus-Cheek
  • 70′Lecce · 3 player changesAmar Fatah · Oumar Ngom · Mohamed Kaba
  • 76′Milan · 2 player changesYunus Musah · Davide Bartesaghi
  • 82′Lecce · 1 player changeKonan N'Dri
  • 87′Milan · 1 player changeFrancesco Camarda

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Milan3-4-2-1
  1. Mike MaignanG
  2. Koni De WinterD
  3. Samuel ChukwuezeD
  4. Diego MoreiraD
  5. Strahinja PavlovićD
  6. Mario GilaD
  7. Luka ModrićM
  8. Yunus MusahM
  9. Gonçalo RamosF
  10. Christian PulišićF
  11. Adrien RabiotF
Lecce4-3-3
  1. Wladimiro FalconeG
  2. Jamil SiebertD
  3. Danilo VeigaD
  4. Antonino GalloD
  5. Tiago GabrielD
  6. Youssef MalehM
  7. Ivan IlićM
  8. Lassana CoulibalyM
  9. Nikola ŠtulićF
  10. Konan N'DriF
  11. Joël MonteiroF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

5Milan
0Draws
0Lecce
Milan — Lecce · Serie A1–0
Milan — Lecce · Coppa Italia3–0
Lecce — Milan · Serie A0–2
Lecce — Milan · Serie A2–3
Milan — Lecce · Serie A3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Milan favored in 13 of 13 directional metrics · Lecce in 0

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Milan5 matchesLecce5 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51 goal/match
0.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/52 goals/match
1.37 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.02 xG/match
12.8 shots/match ▲Shots5/58.4 shots/match
4.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/53.4 shots/match
60.6% ●Possession5/538.6%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/5● 3.4 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls5/512.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Serie A

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMilanLecce
CompetitionSerie A
Head-to-headMilan — Lecce
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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