PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

SC Paderborn 07 3–1 TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

3–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

SC Paderborn 07 won 3–1.

Shots
1323
Shots on target
52
Expected goals
0.71.42
Possession
34%66%

Full time

What the match recorded

SC Paderborn 07 beat TSG Hoffenheim 3–1. Recorded in this match (SC Paderborn 07 – TSG Hoffenheim): shots 13–23, shots on target 5–2, expected goals 0.7–1.42, possession 34%–66%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

TSG Hoffenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

TSG Hoffenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Paderborn 07 · TSG Hoffenheim19 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC Paderborn 07TSG HoffenheimBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match19 shots/match14.9 shots/match
Shots against18.8 shots/match14.5 shots/match16.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

TSG Hoffenheim have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.8%PossessionSC Paderborn 07 · TSG Hoffenheim● 57%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSC Paderborn 07TSG HoffenheimBaseline
Possession46.8%57%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots23 shotsSC Paderborn 07 13 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 23 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots2 shotsSC Paderborn 07 5 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.7 xG1.42 xGSC Paderborn 07 0.7 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 1.42 xG
  • Possession34%66%SC Paderborn 07 34%, TSG Hoffenheim 66%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersSC Paderborn 07 6 corners, TSG Hoffenheim 5 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls14 foulsSC Paderborn 07 6 fouls, TSG Hoffenheim 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardSC Paderborn 07 0 cards, TSG Hoffenheim 1 card
  • Passes324 passes636 passesSC Paderborn 07 324 passes, TSG Hoffenheim 636 passes
  • Pass accuracy71.9%85.1%SC Paderborn 07 71.9%, TSG Hoffenheim 85.1%
  • Shots inside box7 shots16 shotsSC Paderborn 07 7 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 16 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks13 blocksSC Paderborn 07 5 blocks, TSG Hoffenheim 13 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save2 savesSC Paderborn 07 1 save, TSG Hoffenheim 2 saves
  • Offsides1 offside3 offsidesSC Paderborn 07 1 offside, TSG Hoffenheim 3 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 29′Santiago CastañedaGoal · SC Paderborn 07
  2. 42′Stefano MarinoGoal · SC Paderborn 07
  3. 45′Wouter BurgerYellow card · TSG Hoffenheim
  4. Half-time
  5. 50′Adam DaghimGoal · TSG Hoffenheim
  6. 69′Steffen TiggesGoal · SC Paderborn 07
  7. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′TSG Hoffenheim · 1 player changeAlbian Hajdari
  • 46′SC Paderborn 07 · 1 player changeSteffen Tigges
  • 62′TSG Hoffenheim · 2 player changesTim Lemperle · Patrick Wimmer
  • 63′SC Paderborn 07 · 1 player changeJonah Sticker
  • 73′SC Paderborn 07 · 2 player changesRayan Philippe · Tom Baack
  • 75′SC Paderborn 07 · 1 player changeFelix Götze
  • 80′TSG Hoffenheim · 2 player changesFisnik Asllani · Andrej Kramarić

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

SC Paderborn 073-5-2
  1. Nahuel NollG
  2. Laurin CurdaD
  3. Jano Ter-HorstD
  4. Mattes HansenD
  5. Raphael ObermairD
  6. Tjark Lasse SchellerD
  7. Santiago CastañedaM
  8. Laurin UlrichM
  9. Gabriel VidovićM
  10. Marvin PieringerF
  11. Stefano MarinoF
TSG Hoffenheim4-2-3-1
  1. Oliver BaumannG
  2. Ozan KabakD
  3. Albian HajdariD
  4. Vladimír CoufalD
  5. Mats RotsD
  6. Leon AvdullahuM
  7. Adam HložekM
  8. Wouter BurgerM
  9. Adam DaghimF
  10. Tim LemperleF
  11. Bambasé ContéF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Paderborn 07 favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · TSG Hoffenheim in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Paderborn 074 matchesTSG Hoffenheim4 matches
0.75 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 1.75 goals/match
1.25 goals/match ▲Goals allowed4/42.5 goals/match
0.65 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.74 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 19 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 5 shots/match
46.8%Possession4/4● 57%
4 corners/matchCorners4/4● 6.75 corners/match
9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/414 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC Paderborn 07TSG Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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