PitchMath
2. Bundesliga · 2026

SG Dynamo Dresden 1–2 Hertha BSC · 2. Bundesliga

1–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Hertha BSC won 1–2.

Shots
725
Shots on target
29
Expected goals
0.832.46
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Hertha BSC beat SG Dynamo Dresden 2–1. Recorded in this match (SG Dynamo Dresden – Hertha BSC): shots 7–25, shots on target 2–9, expected goals 0.83–2.46, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SG Dynamo Dresden's recent record differs from the season

weak

SG Dynamo Dresden's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SG Dynamo Dresden show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

SG Dynamo Dresden's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match ▲ShotsSG Dynamo Dresden · Hertha BSC18.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSG Dynamo DresdenHertha BSCBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match18.5 shots/match15.5 shots/match
Shots against16.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match15.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots25 shotsSG Dynamo Dresden 7 shots, Hertha BSC 25 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots9 shotsSG Dynamo Dresden 2 shots, Hertha BSC 9 shots
  • Expected goals0.83 xG2.46 xGSG Dynamo Dresden 0.83 xG, Hertha BSC 2.46 xG
  • Possession49%51%SG Dynamo Dresden 49%, Hertha BSC 51%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersSG Dynamo Dresden 6 corners, Hertha BSC 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls9 foulsSG Dynamo Dresden 11 fouls, Hertha BSC 9 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsSG Dynamo Dresden 2 cards, Hertha BSC 2 cards
  • Passes462 passes490 passesSG Dynamo Dresden 462 passes, Hertha BSC 490 passes
  • Pass accuracy76.8%80%SG Dynamo Dresden 76.8%, Hertha BSC 80%
  • Shots inside box5 shots12 shotsSG Dynamo Dresden 5 shots, Hertha BSC 12 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks9 blocksSG Dynamo Dresden 2 blocks, Hertha BSC 9 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves1 saveSG Dynamo Dresden 6 saves, Hertha BSC 1 save
  • Offsides1 offside2 offsidesSG Dynamo Dresden 1 offside, Hertha BSC 2 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 10′Patrice ČovićGoal · SG Dynamo Dresden
  2. 29′Jón Dagur ÞórsteinssonGoal · Hertha BSC
  3. 32′Robert WagnerYellow card · SG Dynamo Dresden
  4. 37′Mads PedersenYellow card · Hertha BSC
  5. 39′Ahmet MuhamedbegovićYellow card · SG Dynamo Dresden
  6. 43′Josip BrekaloYellow card · Hertha BSC
  7. Half-time
  8. 57′Oluwaseun AdewumiGoal · Hertha BSC
  9. 80′Jón Dagur ÞórsteinssonGoal · Hertha BSC
  10. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Hertha BSC · 1 player changeGustaf Nilsson
  • 66′SG Dynamo Dresden · 2 player changesTobias Raschl · Christoph Daferner
  • 74′SG Dynamo Dresden · 2 player changesFriedrich Müller · Jakob Lemmer
  • 74′Hertha BSC · 2 player changesFarid Alfa-Ruprecht · Deyovaisio Zeefuik
  • 74′SG Dynamo Dresden · 1 player changeJonas Sterner
  • 87′Hertha BSC · 1 player changeSoufian Gouram
  • 90′Hertha BSC · 1 player changePascal Klemens

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

SG Dynamo Dresden
  1. Tim SchreiberG
  2. Ahmet MuhamedbegovićD
  3. Alexander RossipalD
  4. Till NeiningerD
  5. Simon StraudiD
  6. Nicolai RappM
  7. Robert WagnerM
  8. Niklas HauptmannM
  9. Vincent VermeijF
  10. Ben BobzienF
  11. Patrice ČovićF
Hertha BSC
  1. Marius GersbeckG
  2. Julian EitschbergerD
  3. Mads PedersenD
  4. Niklas KolbeD
  5. Linus GechterD
  6. Kevin SessaM
  7. Oluwaseun AdewumiM
  8. Paul SeguinM
  9. Josip BrekaloF
  10. Sebastian GrønningF
  11. Jón Dagur ÞórsteinssonF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0SG Dynamo Dresden
0Draws
2Hertha BSC
SG Dynamo Dresden — Hertha BSC · 2. Bundesliga0–1
Hertha BSC — SG Dynamo Dresden · 2. Bundesliga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SG Dynamo Dresden favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Hertha BSC in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SG Dynamo Dresden6 matchesHertha BSC6 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 2.83 goals/match
2.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1.17 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 2.01 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 18.5 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 6.17 shots/match
55% ●Possession6/648.5%
6.67 corners/match ●Corners6/65.67 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/613 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 22:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in 2. Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSG Dynamo DresdenHertha BSC
Competition2. Bundesliga
Head-to-headSG Dynamo Dresden — Hertha BSC
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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