PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Toulouse 3–2 Le Havre · Ligue 1

3–2Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Toulouse won 3–2.

Shots
1418
Shots on target
57
Expected goals
1.922.47
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse beat Le Havre 3–2. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Le Havre): shots 14–18, shots on target 5–7, expected goals 1.92–2.47, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

moderate

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

16.8 fouls/matchFoulsToulouse · Le Havre14.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricToulouseLe HavreBaseline
Fouls16.8 fouls/match14.8 fouls/match11.6 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Toulouse have a visible home split

weak

Toulouse's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18.3 shots/match14.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots18 shotsToulouse 14 shots, Le Havre 18 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots7 shotsToulouse 5 shots, Le Havre 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.92 xG2.47 xGToulouse 1.92 xG, Le Havre 2.47 xG
  • Possession53%47%Toulouse 53%, Le Havre 47%
  • Corners6 corners7 cornersToulouse 6 corners, Le Havre 7 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls15 foulsToulouse 17 fouls, Le Havre 15 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards1 cardToulouse 3 cards, Le Havre 1 card
  • Passes477 passes409 passesToulouse 477 passes, Le Havre 409 passes
  • Pass accuracy86%86.8%Toulouse 86%, Le Havre 86.8%
  • Shots inside box10 shots12 shotsToulouse 10 shots, Le Havre 12 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks5 blocksToulouse 5 blocks, Le Havre 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves5 saves2 savesToulouse 5 saves, Le Havre 2 saves
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideToulouse 3 offsides, Le Havre 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 34′Christ TapéYellow card · Toulouse
  2. Half-time
  3. 49′Casper TengstedtPenalty goal · Toulouse
  4. 51′Casper TengstedtGoal · Toulouse
  5. 58′Niko SigurYellow card · Toulouse
  6. 71′Josh MajaGoal · Le Havre
  7. 74′Seny KoumbassaYellow card · Toulouse
  8. 79′Thomas JørgensenGoal · Toulouse
  9. 81′Sota NakamuraYellow card · Le Havre
  10. 88′Ally SamattaGoal · Le Havre
  11. Full time
Player changes · 8grouped by team and minute
  • 69′Le Havre · 2 player changesSota Nakamura · Enzo Koffi
  • 70′Le Havre · 1 player changeJunior Mwanga
  • 72′Toulouse · 3 player changesSantiago Hidalgo · Sion Oppong · Alexis Vossah
  • 82′Le Havre · 2 player changesRassoul Ndiaye · Ismail Bouneb

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Lineups as recorded. The source does not mark them confirmed.

Toulouse4-2-3-1
  1. Guillaume RestesG
  2. Mark McKenzieD
  3. Seny KoumbassaD
  4. Christ TapéD
  5. Rafik MessaliD
  6. Thomas JørgensenM
  7. Cristian Cásseres Jr.M
  8. Niklas SchmidtM
  9. Santiago HidalgoF
  10. Jacen Russell RoweF
  11. Ilyas AziziF
Le Havre4-3-3
  1. Gauthier GallonG
  2. Ahmed ToubaD
  3. Elias JelertD
  4. Ayumu SekoD
  5. Djibril OuziadD
  6. Amir RichardsonM
  7. Kaito MizutaM
  8. Simon EbonogM
  9. Josh MajaF
  10. Ally SamattaF
  11. Sota NakamuraF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Toulouse
1Draws
2Le Havre
Le Havre — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1
Toulouse — Le Havre · Ligue 10–0
Le Havre — Toulouse · Ligue 11–4
Toulouse — Le Havre · Ligue 12–0
Le Havre — Toulouse · Ligue 11–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Le Havre in 4 · 6 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse5 matchesLe Havre5 matches
1.4 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 1.4 goals/match
2.08 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.37 xG/match
14.8 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 15.6 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 5 shots/match
52.4% ●Possession5/548.4%
4.6 corners/matchCorners5/5● 5.6 corners/match
16.8 fouls/matchFouls5/514.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 19 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseLe Havre
CompetitionLigue 1
Head-to-headToulouse — Le Havre
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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