PitchMath
League One · 2026

AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Doncaster Rovers · League One

1–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

AFC Wimbledon won 1–0.

Shots
1122
Shots on target
39
Expected goals
0.81.82
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

AFC Wimbledon beat Doncaster Rovers 1–0. Recorded in this match (AFC Wimbledon – Doncaster Rovers): shots 11–22, shots on target 3–9, expected goals 0.8–1.82, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for AFC Wimbledon, Doncaster Rovers.

4.79 days ▲Rest daysAFC Wimbledon · Doncaster Rovers7 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricAFC WimbledonDoncaster RoversBaseline
Rest days4.79 days7 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

AFC Wimbledon's recent record differs from the season

weak

AFC Wimbledon's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.83 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match0.83 goals/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

AFC Wimbledon have a visible home split

weak

AFC Wimbledon's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.33 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.33 shots/match11 shots/match13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots22 shotsAFC Wimbledon 11 shots, Doncaster Rovers 22 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots9 shotsAFC Wimbledon 3 shots, Doncaster Rovers 9 shots
  • Expected goals0.8 xG1.82 xGAFC Wimbledon 0.8 xG, Doncaster Rovers 1.82 xG
  • Possession40%60%AFC Wimbledon 40%, Doncaster Rovers 60%
  • Corners6 corners6 cornersAFC Wimbledon 6 corners, Doncaster Rovers 6 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls6 foulsAFC Wimbledon 15 fouls, Doncaster Rovers 6 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards3 cardsAFC Wimbledon 2 cards, Doncaster Rovers 3 cards
  • Passes299 passes455 passesAFC Wimbledon 299 passes, Doncaster Rovers 455 passes
  • Pass accuracy68.6%82%AFC Wimbledon 68.6%, Doncaster Rovers 82%
  • Shots inside box7 shots13 shotsAFC Wimbledon 7 shots, Doncaster Rovers 13 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks7 blocksAFC Wimbledon 5 blocks, Doncaster Rovers 7 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves9 saves3 savesAFC Wimbledon 9 saves, Doncaster Rovers 3 saves
  • Offsides5 offsides1 offsideAFC Wimbledon 5 offsides, Doncaster Rovers 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 27′Jayden StockleyYellow card · AFC Wimbledon
  2. 31′Leon AyindeYellow card · Doncaster Rovers
  3. 43′Myles HippolyteGoal · AFC Wimbledon
  4. Half-time
  5. 76′Owen BaileyYellow card · Doncaster Rovers
  6. 84′Myles HippolyteYellow card · AFC Wimbledon
  7. 90′Tommy SimkinYellow card · Doncaster Rovers
  8. Full time
Player changes · 7grouped by team and minute
  • 6′Doncaster Rovers · 1 player changeSean Grehan
  • 58′Doncaster Rovers · 1 player changeIsaac Hutchinson
  • 64′AFC Wimbledon · 2 player changesDonnell McNeilly · Zack Nelson
  • 65′Doncaster Rovers · 2 player changesJordan Thomas · Bayley McCann
  • 70′AFC Wimbledon · 1 player changeAndy Yiadom

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

AFC Wimbledon
  1. Josef BursikG
  2. Steve SeddonD
  3. Ryan JohnsonD
  4. Freddie SimmondsD
  5. Isaac OgundereD
  6. Ollie HarrisonM
  7. Callum MaycockM
  8. Alistair SmithM
  9. Jayden StockleyF
  10. Myles HippolyteF
  11. Aron SasuF
Doncaster Rovers
  1. Tommy SimkinG
  2. James HusbandD
  3. Matty PearsonD
  4. Neill ByrneD
  5. Jack SeniorD
  6. Owen BaileyM
  7. George BroadbentM
  8. Robbie GottsM
  9. Brandon HanlanF
  10. Alfie MayF
  11. Leon AyindeF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2AFC Wimbledon
1Draws
1Doncaster Rovers
AFC Wimbledon — Doncaster Rovers · League One0–1
Doncaster Rovers — AFC Wimbledon · League One1–2
AFC Wimbledon — Doncaster Rovers · League One2–2
Doncaster Rovers — AFC Wimbledon · League One1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Wimbledon favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Doncaster Rovers in 7 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Wimbledon6 matchesDoncaster Rovers6 matches
0.83 goals/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1 goal/match
1.17 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/61.5 goals/match
0.81 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 1.38 xG/match
11 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 14.3 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 4.17 shots/match
47.2%Possession6/6● 51.7%
5.67 corners/match ●Corners6/65.33 corners/match
13.7 fouls/matchFouls6/611.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in League One

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC WimbledonDoncaster Rovers
CompetitionLeague One
Head-to-headAFC Wimbledon — Doncaster Rovers
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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