PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025

FCV Dender 1–3 KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

KV Mechelen won 1–3.

Shots
1911
Shots on target
66
Expected goals
2.890.93
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

KV Mechelen beat FCV Dender 3–1. Recorded in this match (FCV Dender – KV Mechelen): shots 19–11, shots on target 6–6, expected goals 2.89–0.93, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FCV Dender's recent record differs from the season

weak

FCV Dender's last-five shots average is above their season average.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.64 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match9.64 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots11 shotsFCV Dender 19 shots, KV Mechelen 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots6 shotsFCV Dender 6 shots, KV Mechelen 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.89 xG0.93 xGFCV Dender 2.89 xG, KV Mechelen 0.93 xG
  • Possession54%46%FCV Dender 54%, KV Mechelen 46%
  • Corners4 corners4 cornersFCV Dender 4 corners, KV Mechelen 4 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls12 foulsFCV Dender 16 fouls, KV Mechelen 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Kobe Cools · FCV Dender · 11′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLion Lauberbach · KV Mechelen · 78′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Hammar · KV Mechelen · 25′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMyron Van Brederode · KV Mechelen · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Berte · FCV Dender · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMyron Van Brederode · KV Mechelen · 62′ · 0.03 xG · goalRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 72′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLion Lauberbach · KV Mechelen · 82′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJosé Marsà · KV Mechelen · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Hammar · KV Mechelen · 16′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKobe Cools · FCV Dender · 43′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNathan Rodes · FCV Dender · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMory Konate · KV Mechelen · 7′ · 0.05 xG · goalGora Diouf · KV Mechelen · 85′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Fredrick · FCV Dender · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJunior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni​ · FCV Dender · 27′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLuc Marijnissen · FCV Dender · 54′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedDavid Hrnčár · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.16 xG · on targetRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 88′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Berte · FCV Dender · 48′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 71′ · 0.21 xG · on targetBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 79′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 48′ · 0.25 xG · on targetLion Lauberbach · KV Mechelen · 90′ · 0.34 xG · goalRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.35 xG · off target or blockedLion Lauberbach · KV Mechelen · 85′ · 0.47 xG · on targetBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FCV Dender: 19 shots, 6 on target, 2.95 xG. KV Mechelen: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Bruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 90′Mory Konate · KV Mechelen · 7′Myron Van Brederode · KV Mechelen · 62′Lion Lauberbach · KV Mechelen · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FCV Dender 2.95 xG · KV Mechelen 1.12 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FCV Dender
1Draws
3KV Mechelen
FCV Dender — KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League2–2
KV Mechelen — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League5–2
KV Mechelen — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League2–1
FCV Dender — KV Mechelen · Belgian Pro League2–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FCV Dender favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · KV Mechelen in 7

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FCV Dender11 matchesKV Mechelen12 matches
0.36 goals/matchGoals scored11/12▲ 1.58 goals/match
1.64 goals/matchGoals allowed11/12▲ 1.08 goals/match
0.95 xG/matchExpected goals11/11▲ 1.29 xG/match
9.64 shots/matchShots11/12▲ 10.8 shots/match
3.64 shots/matchShots on target11/12▲ 4.58 shots/match
48.3% ●Possession11/1247.6%
3 corners/matchCorners11/12● 5 corners/match
10 fouls/matchFouls11/1210.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples11 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFCV DenderKV Mechelen
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headFCV Dender — KV Mechelen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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