PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025

KVC Westerlo 1–1 FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

KVC Westerlo and FCV Dender drew 1–1.

Shots
2311
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
1.971.76
Possession
62%38%

Full time

What the match recorded

KVC Westerlo and FCV Dender drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (KVC Westerlo – FCV Dender): shots 23–11, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 1.97–1.76, possession 62%–38%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

KVC Westerlo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

KVC Westerlo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

KVC Westerlo show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

KVC Westerlo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

16.1 shots/match ▲ShotsKVC Westerlo · FCV Dender9.75 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricKVC WesterloFCV DenderBaseline
Shots16.1 shots/match9.75 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against12.6 shots/match14.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots11 shotsKVC Westerlo 23 shots, FCV Dender 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsKVC Westerlo 6 shots, FCV Dender 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.97 xG1.76 xGKVC Westerlo 1.97 xG, FCV Dender 1.76 xG
  • Possession62%38%KVC Westerlo 62%, FCV Dender 38%
  • Corners11 corners3 cornersKVC Westerlo 11 corners, FCV Dender 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls16 foulsKVC Westerlo 12 fouls, FCV Dender 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Luc Marijnissen · FCV Dender · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 71′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedThomas Van den Keybus · KVC Westerlo · 77′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNacho Ferri · KVC Westerlo · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNacho Ferri · KVC Westerlo · 12′ · 0.03 xG · on targetThomas Van den Keybus · KVC Westerlo · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEmin Bayram · KVC Westerlo · 86′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNacho Ferri · KVC Westerlo · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThomas Van den Keybus · KVC Westerlo · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 74′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJosimar Alcócer · KVC Westerlo · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 61′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNacho Ferri · KVC Westerlo · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSeiji Kimura · KVC Westerlo · 76′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAdedire Mebude · KVC Westerlo · 78′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThomas Van den Keybus · KVC Westerlo · 65′ · 0.06 xG · goalKyan Vaesen · KVC Westerlo · 86′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKyan Vaesen · KVC Westerlo · 79′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSeiji Kimura · KVC Westerlo · 21′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKyan Vaesen · KVC Westerlo · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNathan Rodes · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedNathan Rodes · FCV Dender · 88′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedIsa Sakamoto · KVC Westerlo · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIsa Sakamoto · KVC Westerlo · 20′ · 0.15 xG · on targetIsa Sakamoto · KVC Westerlo · 12′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedNacho Ferri · KVC Westerlo · 41′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedIsa Sakamoto · KVC Westerlo · 78′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAllahyar Sayyadmanesh · KVC Westerlo · 58′ · 0.20 xG · on targetNoah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 61′ · 0.20 xG · on targetNacho Ferri · KVC Westerlo · 57′ · 0.21 xG · on targetFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 73′ · 0.22 xG · on targetBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 88′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedDavid Toshevski · FCV Dender · 3′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

KVC Westerlo: 23 shots, 6 on target, 1.93 xG. FCV Dender: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Thomas Van den Keybus · KVC Westerlo · 65′David Toshevski · FCV Dender · 3′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: KVC Westerlo 1.93 xG · FCV Dender 1.69 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2KVC Westerlo
0Draws
2FCV Dender
KVC Westerlo — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League4–2
FCV Dender — KVC Westerlo · Belgian Pro League1–0
FCV Dender — KVC Westerlo · Belgian Pro League1–0
KVC Westerlo — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: KVC Westerlo favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · FCV Dender in 1 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

KVC Westerlo13 matchesFCV Dender12 matches
1.54 goals/match ▲Goals scored13/120.42 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed13/12▲ 1.58 goals/match
1.59 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/121.02 xG/match
16.1 shots/match ▲Shots13/129.75 shots/match
4.92 shots/match ▲Shots on target13/123.58 shots/match
50% ●Possession13/1247.4%
5.85 corners/match ●Corners13/123 corners/match
12.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1210.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 25 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsKVC WesterloFCV Dender
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headKVC Westerlo — FCV Dender
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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