PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025

FCV Dender 1–4 Sint-Truidense VV · Belgian Pro League

1–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Sint-Truidense VV won 1–4.

Shots
1114
Shots on target
44
Expected goals
0.570.83
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

Sint-Truidense VV beat FCV Dender 4–1. Recorded in this match (FCV Dender – Sint-Truidense VV): shots 11–14, shots on target 4–4, expected goals 0.57–0.83, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Sint-Truidense VV's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Sint-Truidense VV's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

3 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for3 goals/match1.79 goals/match1.3 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

FCV Dender show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

FCV Dender's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsFCV Dender · Sint-Truidense VV14.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricFCV DenderSint-Truidense VVBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match14.5 shots/match13.3 shots/match
Shots against14.7 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots14 shotsFCV Dender 11 shots, Sint-Truidense VV 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots4 shotsFCV Dender 4 shots, Sint-Truidense VV 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.57 xG0.83 xGFCV Dender 0.57 xG, Sint-Truidense VV 0.83 xG
  • Possession40%60%FCV Dender 40%, Sint-Truidense VV 60%
  • Corners4 corners9 cornersFCV Dender 4 corners, Sint-Truidense VV 9 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls8 foulsFCV Dender 14 fouls, Sint-Truidense VV 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ilias Sebaoui · Sint-Truidense VV · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMalcolm Viltard · FCV Dender · 56′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMalcolm Viltard · FCV Dender · 80′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBryan Goncalves · FCV Dender · 14′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRyotaro Ito · Sint-Truidense VV · 35′ · 0.02 xG · goalRyotaro Ito · Sint-Truidense VV · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyotaro Ito · Sint-Truidense VV · 40′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Berte · FCV Dender · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKeisuke Goto · Sint-Truidense VV · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlireza Jahanbakhsh · FCV Dender · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArbnor Muja · Sint-Truidense VV · 87′ · 0.03 xG · goalIlias Sebaoui · Sint-Truidense VV · 24′ · 0.05 xG · goalRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 56′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Sissako · Sint-Truidense VV · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNoah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 1′ · 0.07 xG · goalDavid Toshevski · FCV Dender · 23′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRihito Yamamoto · Sint-Truidense VV · 34′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRyotaro Ito · Sint-Truidense VV · 61′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRihito Yamamoto · Sint-Truidense VV · 67′ · 0.07 xG · goalArbnor Muja · Sint-Truidense VV · 78′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Berte · FCV Dender · 49′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 16′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAbdoulaye Sissako · Sint-Truidense VV · 42′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedIlias Sebaoui · Sint-Truidense VV · 40′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FCV Dender: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.57 xG. Sint-Truidense VV: 14 shots, 4 on target, 0.86 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Noah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 1′Ilias Sebaoui · Sint-Truidense VV · 24′Ryotaro Ito · Sint-Truidense VV · 35′Rihito Yamamoto · Sint-Truidense VV · 67′Arbnor Muja · Sint-Truidense VV · 87′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FCV Dender 0.57 xG · Sint-Truidense VV 0.86 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FCV Dender
1Draws
1Sint-Truidense VV
Sint-Truidense VV — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League2–0
FCV Dender — Sint-Truidense VV · Belgian Pro League2–1
Sint-Truidense VV — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League3–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FCV Dender favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Sint-Truidense VV in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FCV Dender26 matchesSint-Truidense VV28 matches
0.81 goals/matchGoals scored26/28▲ 1.79 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed26/28▲ 1.07 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.77 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots26/28▲ 14.5 shots/match
3.85 shots/matchShots on target26/28▲ 4.5 shots/match
47.1%Possession26/28● 53.8%
3.54 corners/matchCorners26/28● 5.54 corners/match
11.3 fouls/matchFouls26/2811.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 21 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFCV DenderSint-Truidense VV
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headFCV Dender — Sint-Truidense VV
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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