Belgian Pro League · 2025Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Oud-Heverlee Leuven

DLDDW

3–2Full-time recap

FCV Dender

DWDLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	FCV Dender
Shots	20 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	8 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	2.09 xG/match▲	1.99 xG/match
Possession	42%	58%●
Corners	10 corners/match●	7 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Oud-Heverlee Leuven: 20 shots, 8 on target, 2.13 xG. FCV Dender: 13 shots, 4 on target, 2.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2.13 xG · FCV Dender 2.01 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Oud-Heverlee Leuven's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.15 goals/match	1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Oud-Heverlee Leuven

2Draws

1FCV Dender

24 Aug 2025FCV Dender — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League0–1

11 May 2025FCV Dender — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League5–0

19 Apr 2025Oud-Heverlee Leuven — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League4–4

15 Feb 2025Oud-Heverlee Leuven — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League3–2

9 Nov 2024FCV Dender — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Oud-Heverlee Leuven favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · FCV Dender in 1 · 5 too close

1.15 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/250.8 goals/match

1.37 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 27/251.6 goals/match

1.21 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 25/251.16 xG/match

1.44 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 25/251.52 xG/match

14 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/2510.8 shots/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2514.7 shots/match

4.67 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/253.84 shots/match

4.52 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/254.52 shots/match

44.8%Possessionseason · 27/25●47.4%

4.93 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/253.52 corners/match

5.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/25▲5.2 corners/match

3.28 cards/matchCardsseason · 25/0—

15.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2511.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

26%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2516%

70%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2560%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven14.7

FCV Dender38.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven57.9

FCV Dender16.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven53.9

FCV Dender23.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven97.1

FCV Dender20.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven97

FCV Dender44.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven55.9

FCV Dender5.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven73.5

FCV Dender23.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Oud-Heverlee Leuven27 matchesFCV Dender25 matches

1.15 goals/match▲Goals scored27/250.8 goals/match

1.37 goals/match▲Goals allowed27/251.6 goals/match

1.21 xG/matchExpected goals25/251.16 xG/match

14 shots/match▲Shots27/2510.8 shots/match

4.67 shots/match▲Shots on target27/253.84 shots/match

44.8%Possession27/25●47.4%

4.93 corners/match●Corners27/253.52 corners/match

3.28 cards/matchCards25/0—

15.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2511.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Oud-Heverlee Leuven14 matchesFCV Dender13 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored14/130.92 goals/match

1.36 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/131.62 goals/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.12 xG/match

15.5 shots/match▲Shots14/1311 shots/match

5.29 shots/match▲Shots on target14/134.31 shots/match

45.1%●Possession14/1344.8%

5.36 corners/match●Corners14/133.62 corners/match

3 cards/matchCards13/0—

15.3 fouls/matchFouls14/1311.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 25home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4