PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025

Oud-Heverlee Leuven 3–2 FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League

3–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Oud-Heverlee Leuven won 3–2.

Shots
2013
Shots on target
84
Expected goals
2.091.99
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Oud-Heverlee Leuven beat FCV Dender 3–2. Recorded in this match (Oud-Heverlee Leuven – FCV Dender): shots 20–13, shots on target 8–4, expected goals 2.09–1.99, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Oud-Heverlee Leuven's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.15 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.15 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots13 shotsOud-Heverlee Leuven 20 shots, FCV Dender 13 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots4 shotsOud-Heverlee Leuven 8 shots, FCV Dender 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.09 xG1.99 xGOud-Heverlee Leuven 2.09 xG, FCV Dender 1.99 xG
  • Possession42%58%Oud-Heverlee Leuven 42%, FCV Dender 58%
  • Corners10 corners7 cornersOud-Heverlee Leuven 10 corners, FCV Dender 7 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls10 foulsOud-Heverlee Leuven 9 fouls, FCV Dender 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Óscar Gil · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 13′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedTakahiro Akimoto · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 39′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavid Toshevski · FCV Dender · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedŁukasz Łakomy · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 62′ · 0.01 xG · on targetMohamed Berte · FCV Dender · 82′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBo De Kerf · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 52′ · 0.03 xG · on targetChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedŁukasz Łakomy · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 4′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDavid Toshevski · FCV Dender · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRoggerio Nyakossi · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Gil · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Gil · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 13′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 29′ · 0.06 xG · on targetŁukasz Łakomy · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 40′ · 0.06 xG · goalChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAlireza Jahanbakhsh · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetDavis Opoku · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSiebe Schrijvers · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 13′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThibaud Verlinden · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 29′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMalcolm Viltard · FCV Dender · 74′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJunior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni​ · FCV Dender · 20′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLuc Marijnissen · FCV Dender · 68′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMathieu Maertens · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 16′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 58′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 20′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 21′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedChukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 16′ · 0.34 xG · goalRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 7′ · 0.36 xG · goalSory Kaba · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goalBruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 90′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Oud-Heverlee Leuven: 20 shots, 8 on target, 2.13 xG. FCV Dender: 13 shots, 4 on target, 2.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 16′Łukasz Łakomy · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 40′Sory Kaba · Oud-Heverlee Leuven · 90′Roman Kvet · FCV Dender · 7′Bruny Nsimba · FCV Dender · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2.13 xG · FCV Dender 2.01 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Oud-Heverlee Leuven
2Draws
1FCV Dender
FCV Dender — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League0–1
FCV Dender — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League5–0
Oud-Heverlee Leuven — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League4–4
Oud-Heverlee Leuven — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League3–2
FCV Dender — Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Belgian Pro League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Oud-Heverlee Leuven favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · FCV Dender in 1 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Oud-Heverlee Leuven27 matchesFCV Dender25 matches
1.15 goals/match ▲Goals scored27/250.8 goals/match
1.37 goals/match ▲Goals allowed27/251.6 goals/match
1.21 xG/matchExpected goals25/251.16 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots27/2510.8 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target27/253.84 shots/match
44.8%Possession27/25● 47.4%
4.93 corners/match ●Corners27/253.52 corners/match
15.7 fouls/matchFouls27/2511.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOud-Heverlee LeuvenFCV Dender
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headOud-Heverlee Leuven — FCV Dender
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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