PitchMath
Belgian Pro League · 2025

FCV Dender 1–3 KAA Gent · Belgian Pro League

1–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

KAA Gent won 1–3.

Shots
1512
Shots on target
48
Expected goals
0.712.21
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

KAA Gent beat FCV Dender 3–1. Recorded in this match (FCV Dender – KAA Gent): shots 15–12, shots on target 4–8, expected goals 0.71–2.21, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

KAA Gent's recent record differs from the season

moderate

KAA Gent's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.72 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.72 goals/match1.28 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots12 shotsFCV Dender 15 shots, KAA Gent 12 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots8 shotsFCV Dender 4 shots, KAA Gent 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.71 xG2.21 xGFCV Dender 0.71 xG, KAA Gent 2.21 xG
  • Possession54%46%FCV Dender 54%, KAA Gent 46%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersFCV Dender 6 corners, KAA Gent 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls5 foulsFCV Dender 12 fouls, KAA Gent 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

David Hrnčár · FCV Dender · 33′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBryan Goncalves · FCV Dender · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavid Hrnčár · FCV Dender · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTibe De Vlieger · KAA Gent · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJunior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni​ · FCV Dender · 52′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMax Dean · KAA Gent · 11′ · 0.03 xG · goalFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 14′ · 0.03 xG · goalMalcolm Viltard · FCV Dender · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLeonardo Lopes · KAA Gent · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDavid Toshevski · FCV Dender · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNoah Mbamba · FCV Dender · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRoman Kvet · FCV Dender · 76′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 9′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWilfried Kanga · KAA Gent · 18′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMax Dean · KAA Gent · 65′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDavid Hrnčár · FCV Dender · 49′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAbdelkahar Kadri · KAA Gent · 89′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNathan Rodes · FCV Dender · 51′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSiebe Van Der Heyden · KAA Gent · 58′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAlireza Jahanbakhsh · FCV Dender · 75′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedWilfried Kanga · KAA Gent · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDavid Hrnčár · FCV Dender · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedWilfried Kanga · KAA Gent · 86′ · 0.10 xG · on targetFabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 4′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMax Dean · KAA Gent · 39′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedAbdelkahar Kadri · KAA Gent · 65′ · 0.67 xG · goalWilfried Kanga · KAA Gent · 89′ · 0.87 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FCV Dender: 15 shots, 4 on target, 0.72 xG. KAA Gent: 12 shots, 8 on target, 2.27 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Fabio Ferraro · FCV Dender · 14′Max Dean · KAA Gent · 11′Abdelkahar Kadri · KAA Gent · 65′Wilfried Kanga · KAA Gent · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FCV Dender 0.72 xG · KAA Gent 2.27 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1FCV Dender
1Draws
1KAA Gent
KAA Gent — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League3–0
FCV Dender — KAA Gent · Belgian Pro League0–0
KAA Gent — FCV Dender · Belgian Pro League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FCV Dender favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · KAA Gent in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FCV Dender30 matchesKAA Gent32 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored30/32▲ 1.72 goals/match
1.7 goals/matchGoals allowed30/32▲ 1.38 goals/match
1.13 xG/matchExpected goals30/31▲ 1.5 xG/match
10.9 shots/matchShots30/32▲ 13.3 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target30/32▲ 4.59 shots/match
47.5%Possession30/32● 51%
3.73 corners/matchCorners30/32● 4.56 corners/match
11.1 fouls/matchFouls30/3210.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 32home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 22 Mar 2026, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Belgian Pro League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFCV DenderKAA Gent
CompetitionBelgian Pro LeagueBelgian Pro League 2025/26
Head-to-headFCV Dender — KAA Gent
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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