UEFA Champions League · 2023Tue, 29 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Panathinaikos

WDWLL

0–1Full-time recap

Sporting Braga

WWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Panathinaikos	Sporting Braga
Shots	11 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	6 shots/match▲
Possession	58%●	42%
Corners	11 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Panathinaikos: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.27 xG. Sporting Braga: 19 shots, 6 on target, 0.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Panathinaikos 0.27 xG · Sporting Braga 0.48 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sporting Braga's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Panathinaikos's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Sporting Braga show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Sporting Braga's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsPanathinaikos · Sporting Braga18 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Panathinaikos	Sporting Braga	Baseline
Shots	10.7 shots/match	18 shots/match	11.9 shots/match
Shots against	14.5 shots/match	7 shots/match	11.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Panathinaikos's recent record differs from the season

weak

Panathinaikos's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.33 goals/match	1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Panathinaikos

0Draws

1Sporting Braga

23 Aug 2023Sporting Braga — Panathinaikos · UEFA Champions League2–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Panathinaikos favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Sporting Braga in 0 · 13 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 6/42.5 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 6/40.5 goals/match

—Expected goalsseason · 0/0—

—Expected goals allowedseason · 0/0—

10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 6/418 shots/match

14.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 6/47 shots/match

2.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 6/46.75 shots/match

4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 6/41.75 shots/match

52.4%Possessionseason · 5/2—

5 corners/matchCornersseason · 6/45 corners/match

4.33 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 6/43.25 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 6/412.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 6/450%

83%Scoring frequencyseason · 6/4100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Panathinaikos63.3

Sporting Braga—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Panathinaikos25.1

Sporting Braga89.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Panathinaikos24.2

Sporting Braga96

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Panathinaikos16.7

Sporting Braga—

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 75%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Panathinaikos73.7

Sporting Braga50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Panathinaikos38.5

Sporting Braga38.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Panathinaikos36.8

Sporting Braga67.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Panathinaikos6 matchesSporting Braga4 matches

1.33 goals/matchGoals scored6/4▲2.5 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/4▲0.5 goals/match

—Expected goals0/0—

10.7 shots/matchShots6/4▲18 shots/match

2.5 shots/matchShots on target6/4▲6.75 shots/match

52.4%Possession5/2—

5 corners/matchCorners6/45 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.7 fouls/matchFouls6/412.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Panathinaikos3 matchesSporting Braga2 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored3/2—

1 goals/matchGoals allowed3/2—

—Expected goals0/0—

12 shots/matchShots3/2—

2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/2—

—Possession2/1—

6.67 corners/matchCorners3/2—

—Cards0/0—

15.3 fouls/matchFouls3/2—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples6 / 4home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 4last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, possession, cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 29 Aug 2023, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4