PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

1. FC Union Berlin 2–3 Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 2–3.

Shots
823
Shots on target
59
Expected goals
1.142.88
Possession
26%74%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat 1. FC Union Berlin 3–2. Recorded in this match (1. FC Union Berlin – Real Madrid): shots 8–23, shots on target 5–9, expected goals 1.14–2.88, possession 26%–74%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

9.5 shots/match ▲Shots1. FC Union Berlin · Real Madrid20.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Union BerlinReal MadridBaseline
Shots9.5 shots/match20.7 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against19.7 shots/match11 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

33.5%Possession1. FC Union Berlin · Real Madrid● 58.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 25.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric1. FC Union BerlinReal MadridBaseline
Possession33.5%58.7%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

1. FC Union Berlin's recent record differs from the season

weak

1. FC Union Berlin's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots23 shots1. FC Union Berlin 8 shots, Real Madrid 23 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots9 shots1. FC Union Berlin 5 shots, Real Madrid 9 shots
  • Expected goals1.14 xG2.88 xG1. FC Union Berlin 1.14 xG, Real Madrid 2.88 xG
  • Possession26%74%1. FC Union Berlin 26%, Real Madrid 74%
  • Corners3 corners8 corners1. FC Union Berlin 3 corners, Real Madrid 8 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls5 fouls1. FC Union Berlin 10 fouls, Real Madrid 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Federico Valverde · Real Madrid · 31′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJérôme Roussillon · 1. FC Union Berlin · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 50′ · 0.03 xG · on targetRodrygo · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 63′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 38′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlex Král · 1. FC Union Berlin · 85′ · 0.04 xG · goalToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJoselu · Real Madrid · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 46′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavid Alaba · Real Madrid · 65′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKevin Behrens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 19′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 22′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 48′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRobin Gosens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 2′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 43′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 89′ · 0.09 xG · goalDani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 10′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 10′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAissa Laïdouni · 1. FC Union Berlin · 80′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 11′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 72′ · 0.20 xG · goalKevin Behrens · 1. FC Union Berlin · 1′ · 0.34 xG · on targetKevin Volland · 1. FC Union Berlin · 45′ · 0.34 xG · goalJoselu · Real Madrid · 61′ · 0.34 xG · goalRodrygo · Real Madrid · 55′ · 0.36 xG · on targetLuka Modrić · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FC Union Berlin: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.14 xG. Real Madrid: 23 shots, 9 on target, 2.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Kevin Volland · 1. FC Union Berlin · 45′Alex Král · 1. FC Union Berlin · 85′Joselu · Real Madrid · 61′Joselu · Real Madrid · 72′Dani Ceballos · Real Madrid · 89′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FC Union Berlin 1.14 xG · Real Madrid 2.91 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

01. FC Union Berlin
0Draws
1Real Madrid
Real Madrid — 1. FC Union Berlin · UEFA Champions League1–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FC Union Berlin favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FC Union Berlin6 matchesReal Madrid6 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 2.67 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1.17 goals/match
0.94 xG/matchExpected goals6/6▲ 2.53 xG/match
9.5 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 20.7 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 7.17 shots/match
33.5%Possession6/6● 58.7%
2.83 corners/matchCorners6/6● 8.33 corners/match
13.5 fouls/matchFouls6/68.83 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 13 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FC Union BerlinReal Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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