PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

Manchester United 0–1 FC Bayern München · UEFA Champions League

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Bayern München won 0–1.

Shots
510
Shots on target
13
Expected goals
0.251.16
Possession
41%59%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Bayern München beat Manchester United 1–0. Recorded in this match (Manchester United – FC Bayern München): shots 5–10, shots on target 1–3, expected goals 0.25–1.16, possession 41%–59%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

FC Bayern München's recent record differs from the season

weak

FC Bayern München's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Manchester United show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Manchester United's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsManchester United · FC Bayern München13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against15.2 shots/match9.83 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

FC Bayern München have recorded the higher season possession share.

46%PossessionManchester United · FC Bayern München● 58.2%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricManchester UnitedFC Bayern MünchenBaseline
Possession46%58.2%49%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots5 shots10 shotsManchester United 5 shots, FC Bayern München 10 shots
  • Shots on target1 shot3 shotsManchester United 1 shot, FC Bayern München 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.25 xG1.16 xGManchester United 0.25 xG, FC Bayern München 1.16 xG
  • Possession41%59%Manchester United 41%, FC Bayern München 59%
  • Corners4 corners2 cornersManchester United 4 corners, FC Bayern München 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls9 foulsManchester United 10 fouls, FC Bayern München 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Antony · Manchester United · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 14′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLuke Shaw · Manchester United · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKim Min-jae · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 31′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 54′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlphonso Davies · FC Bayern München · 13′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarry Kane · FC Bayern München · 10′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJoshua Kimmich · FC Bayern München · 62′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLeon Goretzka · FC Bayern München · 82′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJamal Musiala · FC Bayern München · 26′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBruno Fernandes · Manchester United · 49′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedKingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 71′ · 0.66 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Manchester United: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.25 xG. FC Bayern München: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Kingsley Coman · FC Bayern München · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Manchester United 0.25 xG · FC Bayern München 1.18 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Manchester United
0Draws
1FC Bayern München
FC Bayern München — Manchester United · UEFA Champions League4–3

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Manchester United favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · FC Bayern München in 8 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Manchester United6 matchesFC Bayern München6 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored6/62 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 1 goal/match
1.76 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.6 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots6/6▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target6/6▲ 5 shots/match
46%Possession6/6● 58.2%
4.5 corners/matchCorners6/6● 5.67 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls6/69.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 13 Dec 2023, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsManchester UnitedFC Bayern München
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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