PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023Sat, 1 Jun 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–2Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia DortmundReal Madrid
Shots13 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals2.08 xG/match▲1.13 xG/match
Possession43%57%●
Corners9 corners/match●8 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Niclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMats Hummels · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIan Maatsen · Borussia Dortmund · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMats Hummels · Borussia Dortmund · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcel Sabitzer · Borussia Dortmund · 41′ · 0.04 xG · on targetToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 49′ · 0.04 xG · on targetDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 57′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 66′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedToni Kroos · Real Madrid · 80′ · 0.07 xG · on targetKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 21′ · 0.08 xG · on targetKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 28′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 63′ · 0.08 xG · on targetNacho Fernández · Real Madrid · 82′ · 0.08 xG · on targetKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 23′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 74′ · 0.10 xG · goalDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 49′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 14′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 77′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 83′ · 0.33 xG · goalNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 23′ · 0.57 xG · off target or blockedNiclas Füllkrug · Borussia Dortmund · 28′ · 0.87 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 13 shots, 4 on target, 2.11 xG. Real Madrid: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Dani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 74′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 83′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 2.11 xG · Real Madrid 1.16 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · Real Madrid16.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundReal MadridBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match16.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match13.8 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Real Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Real Madrid's last-five shots average is below their season average.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match16.5 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

5.69 corners/matchCornersBorussia Dortmund · Real Madrid●6.31 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundReal MadridBaseline
Corners5.69 corners/match6.31 corners/match5.08 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 8 · 2 too close

1.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲2.15 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 13/131.15 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/13▲1.96 xG/match
1.85 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.36 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲16.5 shots/match
15.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲13.8 shots/match
4.85 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲5.69 shots/match
4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 13/134.92 shots/match
45.5%Possessionseason · 13/13●53%
5.69 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/13●6.31 corners/match
6.77 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲6 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/139.92 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
46%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1331%
77%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲100%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund30
Real Madrid70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund54.7
Real Madrid88.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund53.6
Real Madrid50.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund72.2
Real Madrid87.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund18.1
Real Madrid13.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund69.4
Real Madrid84.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund51.5
Real Madrid68.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund13 matchesReal Madrid13 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2.15 goals/match
0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.15 goals/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲1.96 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots13/13▲16.5 shots/match
4.85 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲5.69 shots/match
45.5%Possession13/13●53%
5.69 corners/matchCorners13/13●6.31 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.2 fouls/matchFouls13/139.92 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Borussia Dortmund7 matchesReal Madrid7 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲2 goals/match
0.71 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/71.14 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals7/7▲1.59 xG/match
15 shots/matchShots7/714.3 shots/match
5.86 shots/match▲Shots on target7/75.14 shots/match
47.3%Possession7/7●52%
5.86 corners/match●Corners7/75.57 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.6 fouls/matchFouls7/79.86 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

25 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Jun 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia DortmundReal Madrid
CompetitionUEFA Champions League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath