La Liga · 2023Sun, 19 May 2024, 17:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Villarreal

WWLWW

4–4Full-time recap

Real Madrid

WWWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Villarreal	Real Madrid
Shots	21 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	1.78 xG/match▲	1.04 xG/match
Possession	43%	57%●
Corners	3 corners/match	3 corners/match
Fouls	15 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Villarreal: 21 shots, 7 on target, 1.80 xG. Real Madrid: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 1.80 xG · Real Madrid 1.05 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.73 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.6 goals/match	1.73 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.4 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · Real Madrid15.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Villarreal	Real Madrid	Baseline
Shots	12.4 shots/match	15.8 shots/match	12.3 shots/match
Shots against	15.5 shots/match	10.3 shots/match	11.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Villarreal have a visible home split

moderate

Villarreal's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.4 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.4 shots/match	12.4 shots/match	12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Villarreal

2Draws

1Real Madrid

17 Dec 2023Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga4–1

8 Apr 2023Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga2–3

7 Jan 2023Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga2–1

12 Feb 2022Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga0–0

25 Sept 2021Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga0–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 11 · 2 too close

1.73 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 37/37▲2.35 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 37/37▲0.7 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 37/37▲1.86 xG/match

1.58 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 37/37▲0.95 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 37/37▲15.8 shots/match

15.5 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 37/37▲10.3 shots/match

4.51 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 37/37▲6.59 shots/match

5.76 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 37/37▲3.14 shots/match

49.4%Possessionseason · 37/37●59.5%

4.59 corners/matchCornersseason · 37/37●5.59 corners/match

5.24 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 37/37▲3.78 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 37/379.73 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 37/37▲54%

89%Scoring frequencyseason · 37/37▲97%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal52.5

Real Madrid87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal69.2

Real Madrid97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal7.5

Real Madrid97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal57.5

Real Madrid87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal57.5

Real Madrid2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal55

Real Madrid85

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal60.6

Real Madrid70.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Villarreal37 matchesReal Madrid37 matches

1.73 goals/matchGoals scored37/37▲2.35 goals/match

1.73 goals/matchGoals allowed37/37▲0.7 goals/match

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals37/37▲1.86 xG/match

12.4 shots/matchShots37/37▲15.8 shots/match

4.51 shots/matchShots on target37/37▲6.59 shots/match

49.4%Possession37/37●59.5%

4.59 corners/matchCorners37/37●5.59 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls37/379.73 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Villarreal19 matchesReal Madrid19 matches

1.89 goals/matchGoals scored19/19▲2.05 goals/match

1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed19/19▲0.89 goals/match

1.75 xG/match▲Expected goals19/191.52 xG/match

15.4 shots/match▲Shots19/1913.6 shots/match

5.37 shots/matchShots on target19/19▲5.74 shots/match

52.9%Possession19/19●57%

5.95 corners/match●Corners19/195.05 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.1 fouls/matchFouls19/1910.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.88 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples37 / 37home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 19 May 2024, 21:00 UTC · analysis-v4