PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

RB Leipzig 2–3 Aston Villa · UEFA Champions League

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 2–3.

Shots
1719
Shots on target
68
Expected goals
2.232.14
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat RB Leipzig 3–2. Recorded in this match (RB Leipzig – Aston Villa): shots 17–19, shots on target 6–8, expected goals 2.23–2.14, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

RB Leipzig have a visible home split

weak

RB Leipzig's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

18 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots18 shots/match13 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.5 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.5 goals/match1.67 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsRB Leipzig · Aston Villa13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRB LeipzigAston VillaBaseline
Shots13 shots/match13.2 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against17 shots/match13.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots19 shotsRB Leipzig 17 shots, Aston Villa 19 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots8 shotsRB Leipzig 6 shots, Aston Villa 8 shots
  • Expected goals2.23 xG2.14 xGRB Leipzig 2.23 xG, Aston Villa 2.14 xG
  • Possession47%53%RB Leipzig 47%, Aston Villa 53%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersRB Leipzig 5 corners, Aston Villa 7 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsRB Leipzig 12 fouls, Aston Villa 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

John McGinn · Aston Villa · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 34′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 52′ · 0.02 xG · goalLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 83′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 48′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRoss Barkley · Aston Villa · 85′ · 0.03 xG · goalBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKevin Kampl · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 11′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 41′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 87′ · 0.07 xG · on targetMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBoubacar Kamara · Aston Villa · 50′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 55′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 1′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 87′ · 0.10 xG · on targetMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 67′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 44′ · 0.14 xG · on targetLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 72′ · 0.14 xG · on targetMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 35′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 81′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 82′ · 0.18 xG · on targetJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 75′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedDiego Carlos · Aston Villa · 77′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 62′ · 0.30 xG · goalJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 3′ · 0.58 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RB Leipzig: 16 shots, 5 on target, 1.28 xG. Aston Villa: 19 shots, 8 on target, 2.13 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Christoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 62′John McGinn · Aston Villa · 3′Jhon Durán · Aston Villa · 52′Ross Barkley · Aston Villa · 85′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RB Leipzig 1.28 xG · Aston Villa 2.13 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RB Leipzig favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 7 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RB Leipzig6 matchesAston Villa6 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored6/6▲ 1.5 goals/match
2.17 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲ 0.5 goals/match
1.42 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/61.23 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots6/613.2 shots/match
4.33 shots/matchShots on target6/64.5 shots/match
45.5%Possession6/6● 48.5%
5.5 corners/match ●Corners6/64.17 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls6/610.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 11 Dec 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRB LeipzigAston Villa
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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