PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

AS Monaco 1–0 Aston Villa · UEFA Champions League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

AS Monaco won 1–0.

Shots
1210
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.611
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

AS Monaco beat Aston Villa 1–0. Recorded in this match (AS Monaco – Aston Villa): shots 12–10, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.61–1, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AS Monaco have a visible home split

weak

AS Monaco's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season13.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17 shots/match13.4 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Aston Villa's recent record differs from the season

weak

Aston Villa's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.29 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.29 goals/match1.69 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsAS Monaco · Aston Villa12.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAS MonacoAston VillaBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against9.57 shots/match13 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots10 shotsAS Monaco 12 shots, Aston Villa 10 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsAS Monaco 4 shots, Aston Villa 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.61 xG1 xGAS Monaco 1.61 xG, Aston Villa 1 xG
  • Possession39%61%AS Monaco 39%, Aston Villa 61%
  • Corners4 corners7 cornersAS Monaco 4 corners, Aston Villa 7 corners
  • Fouls14 fouls14 foulsAS Monaco 14 fouls, Aston Villa 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Denis Zakaria · AS Monaco · 14′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · AS Monaco · 8′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · AS Monaco · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · AS Monaco · 15′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · AS Monaco · 76′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJordan Teze · AS Monaco · 84′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLucas Digne · Aston Villa · 31′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 6′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 17′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 59′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 47′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · AS Monaco · 75′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTakumi Minamino · AS Monaco · 61′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 37′ · 0.13 xG · on targetMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 69′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedAleksandr Golovin · AS Monaco · 89′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · AS Monaco · 8′ · 0.18 xG · on targetMaghnes Akliouche · AS Monaco · 45′ · 0.36 xG · off target or blockedWilfried Singo · AS Monaco · 8′ · 0.42 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

AS Monaco: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.64 xG. Aston Villa: 10 shots, 5 on target, 0.94 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Wilfried Singo · AS Monaco · 8′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: AS Monaco 1.64 xG · Aston Villa 0.94 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AS Monaco favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 3

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AS Monaco7 matchesAston Villa7 matches
1.86 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match
1.43 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲ 0.57 goals/match
1.63 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/71.2 xG/match
13.4 shots/match ▲Shots7/712.7 shots/match
5.14 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/74.57 shots/match
53% ●Possession7/750.3%
5.29 corners/match ●Corners7/74.57 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls7/711.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 21 Jan 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAS MonacoAston Villa
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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