PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 Milan · UEFA Champions League

2–1Historical match

Milan

WWWWW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

GNK Dinamo Zagreb won 2–1.

Shots
1214
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.191.11
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

GNK Dinamo Zagreb beat Milan 2–1. Recorded in this match (GNK Dinamo Zagreb – Milan): shots 12–14, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.19–1.11, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

GNK Dinamo Zagreb's recent record differs from the season

moderate

GNK Dinamo Zagreb's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.7 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.7 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Milan show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Milan's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.3 shots/match ▲ShotsGNK Dinamo Zagreb · Milan14.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricGNK Dinamo ZagrebMilanBaseline
Shots10.3 shots/match14.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against15.8 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Milan have recorded the higher season possession share.

38.5%PossessionGNK Dinamo Zagreb · Milan● 52.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 14.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricGNK Dinamo ZagrebMilanBaseline
Possession38.5%52.6%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots14 shotsGNK Dinamo Zagreb 12 shots, Milan 14 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsGNK Dinamo Zagreb 5 shots, Milan 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.19 xG1.11 xGGNK Dinamo Zagreb 1.19 xG, Milan 1.11 xG
  • Possession43%57%GNK Dinamo Zagreb 43%, Milan 57%
  • Corners5 corners4 cornersGNK Dinamo Zagreb 5 corners, Milan 4 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls16 foulsGNK Dinamo Zagreb 11 fouls, Milan 16 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Martin Baturina · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 4′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · Milan · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJosip Mišić · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuan Córdoba · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMarko Pjaca · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Chukwueze · Milan · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMartin Baturina · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMartin Baturina · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYoussouf Fofana · Milan · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarko Pjaca · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRafael Leão · Milan · 72′ · 0.05 xG · on targetYoussouf Fofana · Milan · 36′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarko Pjaca · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 60′ · 0.06 xG · goalLuka Stojković · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 5′ · 0.07 xG · on targetStrahinja Pavlović · Milan · 77′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTijjani Reijnders · Milan · 18′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro Morata · Milan · 15′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristian Pulišić · Milan · 53′ · 0.10 xG · goalNoah Okafor · Milan · 88′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTammy Abraham · Milan · 84′ · 0.12 xG · on targetChristian Pulišić · Milan · 66′ · 0.24 xG · on targetArijan Ademi · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 10′ · 0.32 xG · on targetMartin Baturina · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 19′ · 0.33 xG · goalSandro Kulenović · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 45′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

GNK Dinamo Zagreb: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.40 xG. Milan: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Martin Baturina · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 19′Marko Pjaca · GNK Dinamo Zagreb · 60′Christian Pulišić · Milan · 53′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: GNK Dinamo Zagreb 1.40 xG · Milan 1.13 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0GNK Dinamo Zagreb
0Draws
2Milan
GNK Dinamo Zagreb — Milan · UEFA Champions League0–4
Milan — GNK Dinamo Zagreb · UEFA Champions League3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: GNK Dinamo Zagreb favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Milan in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

GNK Dinamo Zagreb10 matchesMilan8 matches
1.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/81.75 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/8▲ 1.38 goals/match
0.88 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.45 xG/match
10.3 shots/matchShots10/8▲ 14.9 shots/match
3.5 shots/matchShots on target10/8▲ 5.75 shots/match
38.5%Possession10/8● 52.6%
3.5 corners/matchCorners10/8● 5 corners/match
11.5 fouls/matchFouls10/810.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 30 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsGNK Dinamo ZagrebMilan
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
Head-to-headGNK Dinamo Zagreb — Milan
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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