PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

SK Sturm Graz 1–0 RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

SK Sturm Graz won 1–0.

Shots
915
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
1.271.54
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

SK Sturm Graz beat RB Leipzig 1–0. Recorded in this match (SK Sturm Graz – RB Leipzig): shots 9–15, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 1.27–1.54, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SK Sturm Graz's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SK Sturm Graz's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.63 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match0.63 goals/match1.63 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RB Leipzig have a visible away split

weak

RB Leipzig's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.75 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.75 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

RB Leipzig have recorded the higher season possession share.

37.4%PossessionSK Sturm Graz · RB Leipzig● 47.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSK Sturm GrazRB LeipzigBaseline
Possession37.4%47.5%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots15 shotsSK Sturm Graz 9 shots, RB Leipzig 15 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsSK Sturm Graz 5 shots, RB Leipzig 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.27 xG1.54 xGSK Sturm Graz 1.27 xG, RB Leipzig 1.54 xG
  • Possession40%60%SK Sturm Graz 40%, RB Leipzig 60%
  • Corners3 corners9 cornersSK Sturm Graz 3 corners, RB Leipzig 9 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls10 foulsSK Sturm Graz 13 fouls, RB Leipzig 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Malick Yalcouyé · SK Sturm Graz · 30′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAmady Camara · SK Sturm Graz · 78′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTochi Chukwuani · SK Sturm Graz · 7′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 27′ · 0.02 xG · on targetChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedTochi Chukwuani · SK Sturm Graz · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedOtar Kiteishvili · SK Sturm Graz · 66′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedWilliam Bøving · SK Sturm Graz · 68′ · 0.07 xG · on targetOtar Kiteishvili · SK Sturm Graz · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 52′ · 0.08 xG · on targetYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 22′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYussuf Poulsen · RB Leipzig · 46′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAntonio Nusa · RB Leipzig · 19′ · 0.11 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 55′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLutsharel Geertruida · RB Leipzig · 44′ · 0.14 xG · on targetChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 55′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedChristoph Baumgartner · RB Leipzig · 44′ · 0.57 xG · off target or blockedArjan Malić · SK Sturm Graz · 42′ · 0.66 xG · on targetArjan Malić · SK Sturm Graz · 42′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SK Sturm Graz: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.87 xG. RB Leipzig: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.61 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Arjan Malić · SK Sturm Graz · 42′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SK Sturm Graz 1.87 xG · RB Leipzig 1.61 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SK Sturm Graz favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SK Sturm Graz8 matchesRB Leipzig8 matches
0.63 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1 goal/match
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.88 goals/match
0.8 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲ 1.55 xG/match
8.38 shots/matchShots8/8▲ 12.9 shots/match
3.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4.63 shots/match
37.4%Possession8/8● 47.5%
2.75 corners/matchCorners8/8● 5.25 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 30 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSK Sturm GrazRB Leipzig
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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