PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023Sun, 10 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lorient

LDLLD
2–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricLorientOlympique de Marseille
Shots15 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target9 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Expected goals2.26 xG/match2.35 xG/match▲
Possession50%50%
Corners4 corners/match6 corners/match●
Fouls17 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Samuel Gigot · Olympique de Marseille · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Olympique de Marseille · 24′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLeonardo Balerdi · Olympique de Marseille · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBonke Innocent · Lorient · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLaurent Abergel · Lorient · 65′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBonke Innocent · Lorient · 89′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBenjamin Mendy · Lorient · 18′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsmaïla Sarr · Olympique de Marseille · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 9′ · 0.05 xG · goalAmine Harit · Olympique de Marseille · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulien Laporte · Lorient · 18′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Olympique de Marseille · 13′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRenan Lodi · Olympique de Marseille · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Olympique de Marseille · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAmine Harit · Olympique de Marseille · 32′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSouleymane Isaak Touré · Lorient · 57′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJonathan Clauss · Olympique de Marseille · 36′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Mendy · Lorient · 52′ · 0.13 xG · goalPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 27′ · 0.14 xG · on targetAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 52′ · 0.14 xG · on targetSamuel Gigot · Olympique de Marseille · 33′ · 0.15 xG · on targetLeonardo Balerdi · Olympique de Marseille · 33′ · 0.16 xG · goalVitinha · Olympique de Marseille · 7′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedVitinha · Olympique de Marseille · 17′ · 0.19 xG · on targetBenjamin Mendy · Lorient · 25′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedRomain Faivre · Lorient · 41′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedRomain Faivre · Lorient · 41′ · 0.25 xG · goalEli Junior Kroupi · Lorient · 90′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedMontassar Talbi · Lorient · 56′ · 0.32 xG · on targetChancel Mbemba · Olympique de Marseille · 3′ · 0.38 xG · goalAhmadou Bamba Dieng · Lorient · 26′ · 0.48 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 42′ · 0.51 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lorient: 15 shots, 8 on target, 2.32 xG. Olympique de Marseille: 18 shots, 8 on target, 2.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Romain Faivre · Lorient · 41′Benjamin Mendy · Lorient · 52′Chancel Mbemba · Olympique de Marseille · 3′Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 9′Leonardo Balerdi · Olympique de Marseille · 33′Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 42′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lorient 2.32 xG · Olympique de Marseille 2.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Olympique de Marseille. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Olympique de Marseille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.47 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Olympique de Marseille.

7.24 days▲Rest daysLorient · Olympique de Marseille3.99 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricLorientOlympique de MarseilleBaseline
Rest days7.24 days3.99 days—
Matches last 14 days1 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Lorient show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Lorient's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.27 shots/match▲ShotsLorient · Olympique de Marseille13.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLorientOlympique de MarseilleBaseline
Shots9.27 shots/match13.7 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against16.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Lorient
1Draws
3Olympique de Marseille
Lorient — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 10–0
Olympique de Marseille — Lorient · Ligue 13–1
Lorient — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 10–3
Olympique de Marseille — Lorient · Ligue 14–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lorient favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 10 · 3 too close

1.33 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/15▲1.47 goals/match
1.93 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/15▲1.07 goals/match
0.95 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 15/15▲1.63 xG/match
1.56 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 15/15▲0.92 xG/match
9.27 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/15▲13.7 shots/match
16.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/15▲11.4 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/154.27 shots/match
6.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/15▲3.8 shots/match
45.4%Possessionseason · 15/15●50.5%
3.93 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/15●5.67 corners/match
6.27 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/15▲5.07 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1510.9 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
13%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/15▲40%
60%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/15▲67%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lorient25
Olympique de Marseille41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lorient37
Olympique de Marseille65.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lorient2.8
Olympique de Marseille71.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lorient2.8
Olympique de Marseille69.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lorient25
Olympique de Marseille19.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lorient22.2
Olympique de Marseille91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lorient21.5
Olympique de Marseille55.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lorient15 matchesOlympique de Marseille15 matches
1.33 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.47 goals/match
1.93 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.07 goals/match
0.95 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲1.63 xG/match
9.27 shots/matchShots15/15▲13.7 shots/match
4.07 shots/matchShots on target14/154.27 shots/match
45.4%Possession15/15●50.5%
3.93 corners/matchCorners15/15●5.67 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lorient8 matchesOlympique de Marseille8 matches
1.63 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.25 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/81.88 goals/match
1.11 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.52 xG/match
10 shots/matchShots8/8▲14.1 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84 shots/match
45%Possession8/8●51.3%
4.63 corners/matchCorners8/8●6.13 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls8/813.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.24 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.99 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Dec 2023, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsLorientOlympique de Marseille
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match
Lorient vs Olympique de Marseille — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath