PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023

Le Havre 3–1 Nice · Ligue 1

3–1Historical match

Nice

WDWLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Le Havre won 3–1.

Shots
913
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
2.051.88
Possession
38%62%

Full time

What the match recorded

Le Havre beat Nice 3–1. Recorded in this match (Le Havre – Nice): shots 9–13, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 2.05–1.88, possession 38%–62%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.27 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Le Havre show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Le Havre's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLe Havre · Nice13.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreNiceBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match13.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against13.8 shots/match9.75 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Nice have recorded the higher season possession share.

44%PossessionLe Havre · Nice● 53.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.7 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricLe HavreNiceBaseline
Possession44%53.7%51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots13 shotsLe Havre 9 shots, Nice 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsLe Havre 5 shots, Nice 6 shots
  • Expected goals2.05 xG1.88 xGLe Havre 2.05 xG, Nice 1.88 xG
  • Possession38%62%Le Havre 38%, Nice 62%
  • Corners2 corners9 cornersLe Havre 2 corners, Nice 9 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls9 foulsLe Havre 13 fouls, Nice 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Pablo Rosario · Nice · 9′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 43′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJérémie Boga · Nice · 19′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 70′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 5′ · 0.03 xG · on targetEmmanuel Sabbi · Le Havre · 35′ · 0.03 xG · goalPablo Rosario · Nice · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Sanson · Nice · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 15′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEvann Guessand · Nice · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedPablo Rosario · Nice · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedPablo Rosario · Nice · 14′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJérémie Boga · Nice · 30′ · 0.16 xG · on targetÉtienne Youte Kinkoue · Le Havre · 60′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 21′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Sabbi · Le Havre · 5′ · 0.26 xG · goalPablo Rosario · Nice · 28′ · 0.32 xG · off target or blockedJosué Casimir · Le Havre · 67′ · 0.50 xG · on targetGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 90′ · 0.62 xG · on targetMohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 51′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Le Havre: 9 shots, 5 on target, 2.11 xG. Nice: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.48 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Emmanuel Sabbi · Le Havre · 5′Emmanuel Sabbi · Le Havre · 35′Mohamed Bayo · Le Havre · 51′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Le Havre 2.11 xG · Nice 1.48 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Le Havre favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Nice in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Le Havre16 matchesNice16 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored16/16▲ 1.06 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲ 0.56 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲ 1.38 xG/match
11.4 shots/matchShots16/16▲ 13.3 shots/match
3.63 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲ 4.69 shots/match
44%Possession16/16● 53.7%
3.81 corners/matchCorners16/16● 5.13 corners/match
13.6 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 16 Dec 2023, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLe HavreNice
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2023/24
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required