PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2023Fri, 12 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricOlympique de MarseilleRC Strasbourg
Shots8 shots/match18 shots/match▲
Shots on target2 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.36 xG/match▲1.19 xG/match
Possession47%53%●
Corners6 corners/match●4 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jonathan Clauss · Olympique de Marseille · 82′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHabib Diarra · RC Strasbourg · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Clauss · Olympique de Marseille · 11′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarvin Senaya · RC Strasbourg · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIbrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Sebas · RC Strasbourg · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 51′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJunior Mwanga · RC Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHabib Diarra · RC Strasbourg · 21′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 75′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Sebas · RC Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.05 xG · goalHabib Diarra · RC Strasbourg · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHabib Diarra · RC Strasbourg · 52′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 85′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMoïse Sahi Dion · RC Strasbourg · 66′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHabib Diarra · RC Strasbourg · 53′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 33′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJordan Veretout · Olympique de Marseille · 79′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedDilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 49′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSamuel Gigot · Olympique de Marseille · 12′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedKévin Gameiro · RC Strasbourg · 15′ · 0.12 xG · on targetPierre-Emerick Aubameyang · Olympique de Marseille · 25′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMoïse Sahi Dion · RC Strasbourg · 90′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJordan Veretout · Olympique de Marseille · 61′ · 0.42 xG · on targetSamuel Gigot · Olympique de Marseille · 3′ · 0.45 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Olympique de Marseille: 8 shots, 2 on target, 1.38 xG. RC Strasbourg: 18 shots, 4 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Samuel Gigot · Olympique de Marseille · 3′Jeremy Sebas · RC Strasbourg · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Olympique de Marseille 1.38 xG · RC Strasbourg 1.19 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: RC Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Olympique de Marseille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.44 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.44 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RC Strasbourg show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

RC Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.6 shots/match▲ShotsOlympique de Marseille · RC Strasbourg10.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOlympique de MarseilleRC StrasbourgBaseline
Shots13.6 shots/match10.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against11.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Olympique de Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

51.6%●PossessionOlympique de Marseille · RC Strasbourg41.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricOlympique de MarseilleRC StrasbourgBaseline
Possession51.6%41.4%51.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Olympique de Marseille
3Draws
0RC Strasbourg
RC Strasbourg — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–1
Olympique de Marseille — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 12–2
RC Strasbourg — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 12–2
Olympique de Marseille — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 14–0
RC Strasbourg — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 10–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Olympique de Marseille favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · RC Strasbourg in 1 · 3 too close

1.44 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.06 goals/match
1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/181.28 goals/match
1.65 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/181.13 xG/match
0.89 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/181.23 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/1810.3 shots/match
11.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1812.2 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/183.39 shots/match
3.83 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 18/18▲3.22 shots/match
51.6%●Possessionseason · 18/1841.4%
5.83 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/183.28 corners/match
4.78 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.11 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1813.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
33%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1817%
72%Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1872%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Olympique de Marseille52.8
RC Strasbourg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Olympique de Marseille62
RC Strasbourg15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Olympique de Marseille73.1
RC Strasbourg65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Olympique de Marseille75
RC Strasbourg41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Olympique de Marseille19.4
RC Strasbourg80.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Olympique de Marseille91.7
RC Strasbourg8.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Olympique de Marseille54.2
RC Strasbourg26.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Olympique de Marseille18 matchesRC Strasbourg18 matches
1.44 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.06 goals/match
1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.28 goals/match
1.65 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.13 xG/match
13.6 shots/match▲Shots18/1810.3 shots/match
4.22 shots/match▲Shots on target18/183.39 shots/match
51.6%●Possession18/1841.4%
5.83 corners/match●Corners18/183.28 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1813.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Olympique de Marseille9 matchesRC Strasbourg9 matches
1.67 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match
0.33 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/91.56 goals/match
1.79 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.86 xG/match
12.8 shots/match▲Shots9/98.78 shots/match
4.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/93 shots/match
50%●Possession9/942%
5.11 corners/match●Corners9/93 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.11 fouls/matchFouls9/912.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

23 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/123 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples18 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Jan 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsOlympique de MarseilleRC Strasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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