Ligue 1 · 2023Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 12:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Lille

WWDDL

3–0Full-time recap

Lorient

LDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Lille	Lorient
Shots	24 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	0 shots/match
Expected goals	2.29 xG/match▲	0.12 xG/match
Possession	62%●	38%
Corners	7 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	22 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Lille: 24 shots, 10 on target, 2.61 xG. Lorient: 1 shots, 0 on target, 0.12 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 2.61 xG · Lorient 0.12 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Lorient's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Lorient's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Lorient's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lorient's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.17 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.17 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lorient show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Lorient's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

13.3 shots/match▲ShotsLille · Lorient8.56 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Lille	Lorient	Baseline
Shots	13.3 shots/match	8.56 shots/match	12.9 shots/match
Shots against	8.72 shots/match	16.2 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.3%●PossessionLille · Lorient45.1%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Lille	Lorient	Baseline
Possession	57.3%	45.1%	51%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Lille

0Draws

3Lorient

27 Aug 2023Lorient — Lille · Ligue 14–1

2 Apr 2023Lille — Lorient · Ligue 13–1

2 Oct 2022Lorient — Lille · Ligue 12–1

19 Jan 2022Lille — Lorient · Ligue 13–1

10 Sept 2021Lorient — Lille · Ligue 12–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Lille favored in 11 of 13 directional metrics · Lorient in 0 · 2 too close

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 18/181.17 goals/match

0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 18/182.11 goals/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 18/180.87 xG/match

0.98 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 18/181.59 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 18/188.56 shots/match

8.72 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 18/1816.2 shots/match

5.11 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 18/173.59 shots/match

3.28 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 18/177.06 shots/match

57.3%●Possessionseason · 18/1845.1%

5.56 corners/match●Cornersseason · 18/183.67 corners/match

4.28 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 18/185.72 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 18/1812.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

56%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 18/1811%

89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 18/1856%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Lille91.7

Lorient25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Lille65.7

Lorient25

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Lille91.7

Lorient2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Lille8.3

Lorient2.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Lille8.3

Lorient30.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Lille86.1

Lorient13.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Lille56.9

Lorient16.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 99%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Lille18 matchesLorient18 matches

1.33 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.17 goals/match

0.78 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/182.11 goals/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals18/180.87 xG/match

13.3 shots/match▲Shots18/188.56 shots/match

5.11 shots/match▲Shots on target18/173.59 shots/match

57.3%●Possession18/1845.1%

5.56 corners/match●Corners18/183.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Lille9 matchesLorient9 matches

1.56 goals/match▲Goals scored9/90.78 goals/match

0.44 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/92.33 goals/match

1.8 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.67 xG/match

14.3 shots/match▲Shots9/97.44 shots/match

5.67 shots/match▲Shots on target9/83.25 shots/match

56.4%●Possession9/944.3%

5.89 corners/match●Corners9/92.56 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.6 fouls/matchFouls9/911.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

24.7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/124.7 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples18 / 18home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 14 Jan 2024, 16:00 UTC · analysis-v4