PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Montpellier 2–2 Nice · Ligue 1

2–2Historical match

Nice

WDWLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Montpellier and Nice drew 2–2.

Shots
2118
Shots on target
86
Expected goals
1.971.12
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Montpellier and Nice drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Montpellier – Nice): shots 21–18, shots on target 8–6, expected goals 1.97–1.12, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Montpellier's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Montpellier's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1 goal/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nice show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nice's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.5 shots/match ▲ShotsMontpellier · Nice14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricMontpellierNiceBaseline
Shots11.5 shots/match14.2 shots/match11.6 shots/match
Shots against15.6 shots/match14.3 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots21 shots18 shotsMontpellier 21 shots, Nice 18 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots6 shotsMontpellier 8 shots, Nice 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.97 xG1.12 xGMontpellier 1.97 xG, Nice 1.12 xG
  • Possession52%48%Montpellier 52%, Nice 48%
  • Corners9 corners4 cornersMontpellier 9 corners, Nice 4 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls13 foulsMontpellier 15 fouls, Nice 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jordan Ferri · Montpellier · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Montpellier · 7′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 15′ · 0.01 xG · on targetBećir Omeragić · Montpellier · 48′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 39′ · 0.02 xG · on targetTeji Savanier · Montpellier · 40′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJordan Ferri · Montpellier · 41′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArnaud Nordin · Montpellier · 60′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBadredine Bouanani · Nice · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTanguy Ndombélé · Nice · 73′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAkor Adams · Montpellier · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Montpellier · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAkor Adams · Montpellier · 49′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTeji Savanier · Montpellier · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 86′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Montpellier · 87′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 17′ · 0.05 xG · goalGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 37′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEvann Guessand · Nice · 35′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSofiane Diop · Nice · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMousa Tamari · Montpellier · 68′ · 0.06 xG · on targetAkor Adams · Montpellier · 69′ · 0.06 xG · on targetJoris Chotard · Montpellier · 5′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 76′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRabby Nzingoula · Montpellier · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedBadredine Bouanani · Nice · 28′ · 0.08 xG · goalSofiane Diop · Nice · 38′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEvann Guessand · Nice · 39′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMoise Bombito · Nice · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBadredine Bouanani · Nice · 47′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedWahbi Khazri · Montpellier · 83′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHicham Boudaoui · Nice · 87′ · 0.13 xG · on targetArnaud Nordin · Montpellier · 43′ · 0.16 xG · on targetJoris Chotard · Montpellier · 22′ · 0.22 xG · goalIssiaga Sylla · Montpellier · 25′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedThéo Sainte-Luce · Montpellier · 80′ · 0.32 xG · goalGaëtan Laborde · Nice · 46′ · 0.44 xG · on targetThéo Sainte-Luce · Montpellier · 90′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Montpellier: 21 shots, 8 on target, 2.02 xG. Nice: 18 shots, 6 on target, 1.46 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Joris Chotard · Montpellier · 22′Théo Sainte-Luce · Montpellier · 80′Gaëtan Laborde · Nice · 17′Badredine Bouanani · Nice · 28′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Montpellier 2.02 xG · Nice 1.46 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Montpellier
2Draws
2Nice
Nice — Montpellier · Ligue 11–2
Montpellier — Nice · Ligue 10–0
Montpellier — Nice · Ligue 12–3
Nice — Montpellier · Ligue 16–1
Montpellier — Nice · Ligue 10–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Montpellier favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Nice in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Montpellier15 matchesNice15 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored15/15▲ 1.87 goals/match
2.53 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1.27 goals/match
1.14 xG/matchExpected goals15/15▲ 1.74 xG/match
11.5 shots/matchShots15/15▲ 14.2 shots/match
4.27 shots/matchShots on target15/15▲ 5.6 shots/match
47.3%Possession15/15● 47.5%
5.6 corners/match ●Corners15/154.6 corners/match
12.6 fouls/matchFouls15/1510.7 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Dec 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMontpellierNice
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headMontpellier — Nice
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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