PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Stade Brestois 4–1 Nantes · Ligue 1

4–1Historical match

Nantes

LLLDW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Stade Brestois won 4–1.

Shots
1316
Shots on target
87
Expected goals
1.991.15
Possession
52%48%

Full time

What the match recorded

Stade Brestois beat Nantes 4–1. Recorded in this match (Stade Brestois – Nantes): shots 13–16, shots on target 8–7, expected goals 1.99–1.15, possession 52%–48%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Stade Brestois's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.6 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.6 goals/match1.43 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nantes have a visible away split

moderate

Nantes's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.63 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.63 shots/match11.3 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Stade Brestois have recorded the higher season possession share.

50.6% ●PossessionStade Brestois · Nantes42.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricStade BrestoisNantesBaseline
Possession50.6%42.4%47.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots16 shotsStade Brestois 13 shots, Nantes 16 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots7 shotsStade Brestois 8 shots, Nantes 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.99 xG1.15 xGStade Brestois 1.99 xG, Nantes 1.15 xG
  • Possession52%48%Stade Brestois 52%, Nantes 48%
  • Corners0 corners5 cornersStade Brestois 0 corners, Nantes 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls14 foulsStade Brestois 10 fouls, Nantes 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Hugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois · 2′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pallois · Nantes · 13′ · 0.01 xG · on targetNicolas Cozza · Nantes · 33′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Nantes · 31′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMassadio Haïdara · Stade Brestois · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 48′ · 0.03 xG · goalHugo Magnetti · Stade Brestois · 49′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMahdi Camara · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNicolas Cozza · Nantes · 29′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAbdallah Sima · Stade Brestois · 74′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMoses Simon · Nantes · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorent Mollet · Nantes · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 24′ · 0.05 xG · goalMahdi Camara · Stade Brestois · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 68′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedIgnatius Ganago · Nantes · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Nantes · 14′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMatthis Abline · Nantes · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 75′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJean-Kévin Duverne · Nantes · 30′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBrendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois · 27′ · 0.14 xG · goalAbdallah Sima · Stade Brestois · 78′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAbdallah Sima · Stade Brestois · 90′ · 0.20 xG · goalKamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 71′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedMama Baldé · Stade Brestois · 49′ · 0.26 xG · on targetAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 82′ · 0.37 xG · on targetAbdallah Sima · Stade Brestois · 88′ · 0.70 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Stade Brestois: 13 shots, 8 on target, 1.95 xG. Nantes: 16 shots, 7 on target, 1.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kamory Doumbia · Stade Brestois · 24′Brendan Chardonnet · Stade Brestois · 27′Abdallah Sima · Stade Brestois · 88′Abdallah Sima · Stade Brestois · 90′Augusto Douglas · Nantes · 48′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Stade Brestois 1.95 xG · Nantes 1.16 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Stade Brestois
2Draws
1Nantes
Stade Brestois — Nantes · Ligue 10–0
Nantes — Stade Brestois · Ligue 10–2
Stade Brestois — Nantes · Ligue 12–0
Nantes — Stade Brestois · Ligue 14–1
Stade Brestois — Nantes · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Stade Brestois favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Nantes in 3 · 4 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Stade Brestois15 matchesNantes15 matches
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals scored15/151.13 goals/match
1.8 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲ 1.6 goals/match
1.21 xG/match ▲Expected goals14/151.07 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots14/1511.3 shots/match
4.71 shots/match ▲Shots on target14/154.2 shots/match
50.6% ●Possession14/1542.4%
3.57 corners/matchCorners14/15● 4.93 corners/match
13.1 fouls/matchFouls14/1512.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples15 / 15home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 15 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsStade BrestoisNantes
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headStade Brestois — Nantes
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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