PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Toulouse 0–1 Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Paris Saint-Germain won 0–1.

Shots
1420
Shots on target
46
Expected goals
0.882.44
Possession
23%77%

Full time

What the match recorded

Paris Saint-Germain beat Toulouse 1–0. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – Paris Saint-Germain): shots 14–20, shots on target 4–6, expected goals 0.88–2.44, possession 23%–77%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Paris Saint-Germain have recorded the higher season possession share.

45%PossessionToulouse · Paris Saint-Germain● 69.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 24.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Possession45%69.1%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

weak

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.05 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.05 goals/match1.4 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Toulouse show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Toulouse's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.9 shots/match ▲ShotsToulouse · Paris Saint-Germain18.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricToulouseParis Saint-GermainBaseline
Shots11.9 shots/match18.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against10 shots/match9.18 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots20 shotsToulouse 14 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 20 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots6 shotsToulouse 4 shots, Paris Saint-Germain 6 shots
  • Expected goals0.88 xG2.44 xGToulouse 0.88 xG, Paris Saint-Germain 2.44 xG
  • Possession23%77%Toulouse 23%, Paris Saint-Germain 77%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersToulouse 5 corners, Paris Saint-Germain 2 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls6 foulsToulouse 9 fouls, Paris Saint-Germain 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Zakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 4′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 14′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLucas Hernández · Paris Saint-Germain · 19′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 50′ · 0.02 xG · on targetDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 5′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedShavy Babicka · Toulouse · 11′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSenny Mayulu · Paris Saint-Germain · 52′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 62′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKang-in Lee · Paris Saint-Germain · 25′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKhvicha Kvaratskhelia · Paris Saint-Germain · 29′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRafik Messali · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLucas Beraldo · Paris Saint-Germain · 35′ · 0.06 xG · on targetZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 46′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 14′ · 0.09 xG · on targetCharlie Cresswell · Toulouse · 47′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 27′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedZakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse · 88′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 37′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedWillian Pacho · Paris Saint-Germain · 52′ · 0.11 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 2′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAchraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain · 45′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDésiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain · 60′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 62′ · 0.34 xG · on targetBradley Barcola · Paris Saint-Germain · 37′ · 0.38 xG · on targetFabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 52′ · 0.90 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 14 shots, 4 on target, 0.91 xG. Paris Saint-Germain: 20 shots, 6 on target, 2.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Fabián Ruiz · Paris Saint-Germain · 52′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.91 xG · Paris Saint-Germain 2.59 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Toulouse
1Draws
3Paris Saint-Germain
Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 13–0
Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 11–3
Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 11–1
Paris Saint-Germain — Toulouse · Ligue 12–1
Toulouse — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Paris Saint-Germain in 9

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse22 matchesParis Saint-Germain22 matches
1.05 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲ 2.68 goals/match
1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲ 0.91 goals/match
1.37 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲ 2.62 xG/match
11.9 shots/matchShots22/22▲ 18.3 shots/match
4.09 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲ 8.32 shots/match
45%Possession22/22● 69.1%
4.64 corners/matchCorners22/22● 6.59 corners/match
13.4 fouls/matchFouls22/229.09 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Feb 2025, 00:05 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseParis Saint-Germain
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headToulouse — Paris Saint-Germain
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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