PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Nantes 1–0 Lille · Ligue 1

Nantes

LLWLL
1–0Historical match

Lille

LWWLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nantes won 1–0.

Shots
1013
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
1.211.58
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nantes beat Lille 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nantes – Lille): shots 10–13, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 1.21–1.58, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Lille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.54 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.54 goals/match1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Lille have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.6%PossessionNantes · Lille● 58.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.1 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNantesLilleBaseline
Possession39.6%58.7%47.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Nantes have a visible home split

moderate

Nantes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.5 shots/match10.7 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots13 shotsNantes 10 shots, Lille 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsNantes 3 shots, Lille 4 shots
  • Expected goals1.21 xG1.58 xGNantes 1.21 xG, Lille 1.58 xG
  • Possession32%68%Nantes 32%, Lille 68%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersNantes 3 corners, Lille 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls15 foulsNantes 9 fouls, Lille 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Saïdou Sow · Nantes · 53′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJonathan David · Lille · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 2′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSorba Thomas · Nantes · 10′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoses Simon · Nantes · 56′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMarcus Coco · Nantes · 63′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Gudmundsson · Lille · 66′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 8′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 33′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 37′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChuba Akpom · Lille · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 18′ · 0.12 xG · on targetAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 52′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedIsmaily · Lille · 89′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedLouis Leroux · Nantes · 10′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedOsame Sahraoui · Lille · 31′ · 0.19 xG · on targetSorba Thomas · Nantes · 69′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 83′ · 0.19 xG · goalSaïdou Sow · Nantes · 58′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedMitchel Bakker · Lille · 80′ · 0.22 xG · on targetAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 50′ · 0.24 xG · on targetChuba Akpom · Lille · 71′ · 0.27 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.24 xG. Lille: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 83′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 1.24 xG · Lille 1.56 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Nantes
2Draws
3Lille
Lille — Nantes · Ligue 11–1
Nantes — Lille · Ligue 11–2
Lille — Nantes · Ligue 12–0
Lille — Nantes · Ligue 12–1
Nantes — Lille · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nantes favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Lille in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nantes26 matchesLille26 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.54 goals/match
1.65 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.08 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 1.7 xG/match
10.7 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 13 shots/match
3.96 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 5.08 shots/match
39.6%Possession26/26● 58.7%
4.38 corners/matchCorners26/26● 4.92 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls26/2612.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Mar 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNantesLille
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headNantes — Lille
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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