PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Nantes 0–1 RC Strasbourg · Ligue 1

Nantes

WLLWL
0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RC Strasbourg won 0–1.

Shots
119
Shots on target
21
Expected goals
0.820.98
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

RC Strasbourg beat Nantes 1–0. Recorded in this match (Nantes – RC Strasbourg): shots 11–9, shots on target 2–1, expected goals 0.82–0.98, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.12 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.12 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nantes have a visible home split

moderate

Nantes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

RC Strasbourg have recorded the higher season possession share.

39.9%PossessionNantes · RC Strasbourg● 49.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNantesRC StrasbourgBaseline
Possession39.9%49.4%47.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots9 shotsNantes 11 shots, RC Strasbourg 9 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots1 shotNantes 2 shots, RC Strasbourg 1 shot
  • Expected goals0.82 xG0.98 xGNantes 0.82 xG, RC Strasbourg 0.98 xG
  • Possession39%61%Nantes 39%, RC Strasbourg 61%
  • Corners3 corners9 cornersNantes 3 corners, RC Strasbourg 9 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls17 foulsNantes 12 fouls, RC Strasbourg 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Matthis Abline · Nantes · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 27′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDilane Bakwa · RC Strasbourg · 38′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 51′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndrey Santos · RC Strasbourg · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedValentín Barco · RC Strasbourg · 67′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBahereba Guirassy · Nantes · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetLouis Leroux · Nantes · 18′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSebastian Nanasi · RC Strasbourg · 31′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Sarr · RC Strasbourg · 77′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 19′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg · 63′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedFélix Lemaréchal · RC Strasbourg · 79′ · 0.16 xG · goalMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 25′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedDiego Moreira · RC Strasbourg · 59′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedFélix Lemaréchal · RC Strasbourg · 64′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 11 shots, 2 on target, 0.76 xG. RC Strasbourg: 9 shots, 1 on target, 0.98 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.510′HT90′Félix Lemaréchal · RC Strasbourg · 79′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 0.76 xG · RC Strasbourg 0.98 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nantes
1Draws
3RC Strasbourg
RC Strasbourg — Nantes · Ligue 13–1
Nantes — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 11–3
RC Strasbourg — Nantes · Ligue 11–2
Nantes — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 10–2
RC Strasbourg — Nantes · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nantes favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · RC Strasbourg in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nantes25 matchesRC Strasbourg25 matches
1.12 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.72 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.28 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals25/24▲ 1.45 xG/match
10.8 shots/match ▲Shots25/2410.1 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target25/24▲ 4.38 shots/match
39.9%Possession25/24● 49.4%
4.44 corners/match ●Corners25/243.96 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2412 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 9 Mar 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNantesRC Strasbourg
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headNantes — RC Strasbourg
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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