PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

RC Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse · Ligue 1

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

RC Strasbourg won 2–1.

Shots
1011
Shots on target
37
Expected goals
1.651.74
Possession
57%43%

Full time

What the match recorded

RC Strasbourg beat Toulouse 2–1. Recorded in this match (RC Strasbourg – Toulouse): shots 10–11, shots on target 3–7, expected goals 1.65–1.74, possession 57%–43%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.27 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.27 goals/match1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

RC Strasbourg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

RC Strasbourg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.1 shots/match ▲ShotsRC Strasbourg · Toulouse11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRC StrasbourgToulouseBaseline
Shots10.1 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match10 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots11 shotsRC Strasbourg 10 shots, Toulouse 11 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots7 shotsRC Strasbourg 3 shots, Toulouse 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.65 xG1.74 xGRC Strasbourg 1.65 xG, Toulouse 1.74 xG
  • Possession57%43%RC Strasbourg 57%, Toulouse 43%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersRC Strasbourg 4 corners, Toulouse 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls14 foulsRC Strasbourg 10 fouls, Toulouse 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Diego Moreira · RC Strasbourg · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 84′ · 0.01 xG · on targetSamuel Amo-Ameyaw · RC Strasbourg · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Suazo · Toulouse · 74′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 2′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAndrey Santos · RC Strasbourg · 54′ · 0.09 xG · goalYann Gboho · Toulouse · 3′ · 0.10 xG · on targetSebastian Nanasi · RC Strasbourg · 52′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg · 19′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Suazo · Toulouse · 59′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg · 1′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg · 72′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedYann Gboho · Toulouse · 51′ · 0.18 xG · on targetSamuel Amo-Ameyaw · RC Strasbourg · 63′ · 0.18 xG · on targetSebastian Nanasi · RC Strasbourg · 78′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 45′ · 0.25 xG · on targetFélix Lemaréchal · RC Strasbourg · 47′ · 0.59 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

RC Strasbourg: 10 shots, 3 on target, 1.64 xG. Toulouse: 10 shots, 6 on target, 0.85 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Félix Lemaréchal · RC Strasbourg · 47′Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg · 54′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: RC Strasbourg 1.64 xG · Toulouse 0.85 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2RC Strasbourg
2Draws
1Toulouse
Toulouse — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 10–0
RC Strasbourg — Toulouse · Ligue 12–0
RC Strasbourg — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — RC Strasbourg · Ligue 12–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: RC Strasbourg favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 7 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

RC Strasbourg26 matchesToulouse26 matches
1.58 goals/match ▲Goals scored26/261.27 goals/match
1.27 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.12 goals/match
1.46 xG/matchExpected goals25/261.47 xG/match
10.1 shots/matchShots25/26▲ 11.9 shots/match
4.32 shots/matchShots on target25/264.54 shots/match
49.7% ●Possession25/2645.5%
3.96 corners/matchCorners25/26● 4.62 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls25/2613.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 20:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsRC StrasbourgToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headRC Strasbourg — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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