PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Toulouse 1–1 AS Monaco · Ligue 1

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Toulouse and AS Monaco drew 1–1.

Shots
813
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
0.572.43
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Toulouse and AS Monaco drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Toulouse – AS Monaco): shots 8–13, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 0.57–2.43, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Toulouse's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Toulouse's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.28 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.28 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

13.3 fouls/matchFoulsToulouse · AS Monaco13.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricToulouseAS MonacoBaseline
Fouls13.3 fouls/match13.8 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

AS Monaco have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.6%PossessionToulouse · AS Monaco● 56.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricToulouseAS MonacoBaseline
Possession45.6%56.1%47.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots13 shotsToulouse 8 shots, AS Monaco 13 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsToulouse 3 shots, AS Monaco 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.57 xG2.43 xGToulouse 0.57 xG, AS Monaco 2.43 xG
  • Possession50%50%Toulouse 50%, AS Monaco 50%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersToulouse 3 corners, AS Monaco 5 corners
  • Fouls16 fouls17 foulsToulouse 16 fouls, AS Monaco 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Caio Henrique · AS Monaco · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAron Dønnum · Toulouse · 68′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedVincent Sierro · Toulouse · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVanderson · AS Monaco · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBreel Embolo · AS Monaco · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWilfried Singo · AS Monaco · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMika Biereth · AS Monaco · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaghnes Akliouche · AS Monaco · 75′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLamine Camara · AS Monaco · 87′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMiha Zajc · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.05 xG · on targetShavy Babicka · Toulouse · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 58′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedThilo Kehrer · AS Monaco · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNoah Edjouma · Toulouse · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 90′ · 0.12 xG · goalMika Biereth · AS Monaco · 21′ · 0.14 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 69′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMaghnes Akliouche · AS Monaco · 61′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedMika Biereth · AS Monaco · 4′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedLamine Camara · AS Monaco · 26′ · 0.56 xG · on targetTakumi Minamino · AS Monaco · 17′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Toulouse: 8 shots, 3 on target, 0.59 xG. AS Monaco: 13 shots, 3 on target, 2.38 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Frank Magri · Toulouse · 90′Takumi Minamino · AS Monaco · 17′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Toulouse 0.59 xG · AS Monaco 2.38 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Toulouse
0Draws
3AS Monaco
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 12–0
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — AS Monaco · Ligue 11–2
AS Monaco — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — AS Monaco · Ligue 10–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Toulouse favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · AS Monaco in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Toulouse25 matchesAS Monaco25 matches
1.28 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.96 goals/match
1.08 goals/match ▲Goals allowed25/251.28 goals/match
1.46 xG/matchExpected goals25/25▲ 2.3 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots25/25▲ 15 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 5.56 shots/match
45.6%Possession25/25● 56.1%
4.68 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.32 corners/match
13.3 fouls/matchFouls25/2513.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 7 Mar 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsToulouseAS Monaco
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headToulouse — AS Monaco
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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