PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2024

Lille 1–2 Borussia Dortmund · UEFA Champions League

Lille

WWLWD
1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Borussia Dortmund won 1–2.

Shots
1117
Shots on target
48
Expected goals
1.483.05
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Borussia Dortmund beat Lille 2–1. Recorded in this match (Lille – Borussia Dortmund): shots 11–17, shots on target 4–8, expected goals 1.48–3.05, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Lille's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Lille's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.4 goals/match1.71 goals/match1.6 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Lille have a visible home split

moderate

Lille's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.4 shots/match10.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Lille show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Lille's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLille · Borussia Dortmund14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricLilleBorussia DortmundBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match14 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match11.8 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots17 shotsLille 11 shots, Borussia Dortmund 17 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots8 shotsLille 4 shots, Borussia Dortmund 8 shots
  • Expected goals1.48 xG3.05 xGLille 1.48 xG, Borussia Dortmund 3.05 xG
  • Possession50%50%Lille 50%, Borussia Dortmund 50%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersLille 4 corners, Borussia Dortmund 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsLille 11 fouls, Borussia Dortmund 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Benjamin André · Lille · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlexsandro Ribeiro · Lille · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Gudmundsson · Lille · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 19′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNico Schlotterbeck · Borussia Dortmund · 23′ · 0.04 xG · on targetHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 34′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 20′ · 0.05 xG · on targetEmre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHakon Arnar Haraldsson · Lille · 61′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJulian Ryerson · Borussia Dortmund · 13′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 47′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 65′ · 0.06 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 20′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 63′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRémy Cabella · Lille · 14′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin André · Lille · 34′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJonathan David · Lille · 5′ · 0.17 xG · goalChuba Akpom · Lille · 84′ · 0.19 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 20′ · 0.33 xG · on targetJonathan David · Lille · 79′ · 0.34 xG · on targetPascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund · 17′ · 0.40 xG · on targetPascal Groß · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.41 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 62′ · 0.45 xG · off target or blockedEmre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 54′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Lille: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.18 xG. Borussia Dortmund: 17 shots, 8 on target, 3.13 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.753.50′HT90′Jonathan David · Lille · 5′Emre Can · Borussia Dortmund · 54′Maximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Lille 1.18 xG · Borussia Dortmund 3.13 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Lille
1Draws
0Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund — Lille · UEFA Champions League1–1

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Lille favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Borussia Dortmund in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Lille14 matchesBorussia Dortmund12 matches
1.71 goals/matchGoals scored14/12▲ 2.33 goals/match
1.21 goals/matchGoals allowed14/121.17 goals/match
1.2 xG/matchExpected goals10/12▲ 1.92 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots14/12▲ 14 shots/match
4.29 shots/matchShots on target14/12▲ 6 shots/match
50.8%Possession14/12● 53.3%
3.71 corners/matchCorners14/12● 5.75 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls14/1212.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples14 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 12 Mar 2025, 21:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsLilleBorussia Dortmund
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2024/25
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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