Ligue 1 · 2024Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Paris Saint-Germain

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3–1Full-time recap

Olympique de Marseille

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Paris Saint-Germain	Olympique de Marseille
Shots	16 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	5 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	2.59 xG/match▲	1.19 xG/match
Possession	60%●	40%
Corners	5 corners/match	5 corners/match
Fouls	7 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Olympique de Marseille's recent record differs from the season

weak

Olympique de Marseille's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2.04 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.6 goals/match	2.04 goals/match	1.38 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Paris Saint-Germain show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Paris Saint-Germain's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.4 shots/match▲ShotsParis Saint-Germain · Olympique de Marseille14.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Paris Saint-Germain	Olympique de Marseille	Baseline
Shots	18.4 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	12.2 shots/match
Shots against	9.46 shots/match	9.88 shots/match	12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

5Paris Saint-Germain

0Draws

0Olympique de Marseille

27 Oct 2024Olympique de Marseille — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–3

31 Mar 2024Olympique de Marseille — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–2

24 Sept 2023Paris Saint-Germain — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 14–0

26 Feb 2023Olympique de Marseille — Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 10–3

16 Oct 2022Paris Saint-Germain — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Paris Saint-Germain favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Olympique de Marseille in 0 · 4 too close

2.81 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 26/262.04 goals/match

0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 26/261.27 goals/match

2.7 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 26/261.9 xG/match

1 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 26/261.42 xG/match

18.4 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 26/2614.3 shots/match

9.46 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 26/269.88 shots/match

8.31 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 26/265.88 shots/match

3.35 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 26/264.08 shots/match

68.1%●Possessionseason · 26/2663.8%

6.35 corners/match●Cornersseason · 26/264.85 corners/match

3.35 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 26/263.35 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

8.73 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 26/2611.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

23%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 26/2619%

96%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 26/2681%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Paris Saint-Germain97.2

Olympique de Marseille91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Paris Saint-Germain97.2

Olympique de Marseille89.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Paris Saint-Germain95.4

Olympique de Marseille70.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Paris Saint-Germain80.6

Olympique de Marseille19.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint-Germain2.8

Olympique de Marseille27.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Paris Saint-Germain97.2

Olympique de Marseille52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Paris Saint-Germain73.6

Olympique de Marseille64.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Paris Saint-Germain26 matchesOlympique de Marseille26 matches

2.81 goals/match▲Goals scored26/262.04 goals/match

0.96 goals/match▲Goals allowed26/261.27 goals/match

2.7 xG/match▲Expected goals26/261.9 xG/match

18.4 shots/match▲Shots26/2614.3 shots/match

8.31 shots/match▲Shots on target26/265.88 shots/match

68.1%●Possession26/2663.8%

6.35 corners/match●Corners26/264.85 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.73 fouls/matchFouls26/2611.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Paris Saint-Germain13 matchesOlympique de Marseille13 matches

2.92 goals/match▲Goals scored13/132.15 goals/match

0.85 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/131.23 goals/match

2.89 xG/match▲Expected goals13/131.5 xG/match

20.2 shots/match▲Shots13/1312.8 shots/match

8.38 shots/match▲Shots on target13/135.54 shots/match

66.7%●Possession13/1362.8%

6.69 corners/match●Corners13/134.38 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.85 fouls/matchFouls13/1310.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.16 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.99 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples26 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4