Ligue 1 · 2024Sun, 27 Apr 2025, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Olympique de Marseille

LLWLW

4–1Full-time recap

Stade Brestois

DWWDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Olympique de Marseille	Stade Brestois
Shots	11 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	4 shots/match
Expected goals	0.91 xG/match	1.81 xG/match▲
Possession	54%●	46%
Corners	4 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	14 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Stade Brestois's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Olympique de Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Stade Brestois's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Stade Brestois's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.58 goals/match	1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Olympique de Marseille have recorded the higher season possession share.

64.1%●PossessionOlympique de Marseille · Stade Brestois48.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.8 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Olympique de Marseille	Stade Brestois	Baseline
Possession	64.1%	48.3%	47.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Olympique de Marseille

1Draws

2Stade Brestois

17 Aug 2024Stade Brestois — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–5

18 Feb 2024Stade Brestois — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–0

26 Aug 2023Olympique de Marseille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 12–0

27 May 2023Olympique de Marseille — Stade Brestois · Ligue 11–2

14 Aug 2022Stade Brestois — Olympique de Marseille · Ligue 11–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Olympique de Marseille favored in 8 of 13 directional metrics · Stade Brestois in 1 · 4 too close

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/311.58 goals/match

1.39 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/311.71 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 31/301.34 xG/match

1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 31/301.66 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 31/3012.3 shots/match

9.74 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3012 shots/match

5.94 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 31/304.83 shots/match

4.16 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 31/304.3 shots/match

64.1%●Possessionseason · 31/3048.3%

5.1 corners/match●Cornersseason · 31/304.3 corners/match

3.13 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 31/304.87 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3012.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

16%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/31▲26%

81%Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3181%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Olympique de Marseille91.7

Stade Brestois52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Olympique de Marseille86.1

Stade Brestois57.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Olympique de Marseille66.7

Stade Brestois45.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Olympique de Marseille13.9

Stade Brestois52.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Olympique de Marseille36.1

Stade Brestois69.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 48%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Olympique de Marseille69.4

Stade Brestois41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Olympique de Marseille68

Stade Brestois55.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 97%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Olympique de Marseille31 matchesStade Brestois31 matches

2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored31/311.58 goals/match

1.39 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/311.71 goals/match

1.84 xG/match▲Expected goals31/301.34 xG/match

14.2 shots/match▲Shots31/3012.3 shots/match

5.94 shots/match▲Shots on target31/304.83 shots/match

64.1%●Possession31/3048.3%

5.1 corners/match●Corners31/304.3 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls31/3012.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Olympique de Marseille16 matchesStade Brestois16 matches

2.31 goals/match▲Goals scored16/161.31 goals/match

1.31 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/162 goals/match

2.21 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.28 xG/match

15.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1611.4 shots/match

6.25 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.38 shots/match

64.4%●Possession16/1646.5%

5.31 corners/match●Corners16/164.44 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFouls16/1613.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.99 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.15 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples31 / 31home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Apr 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4