PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2024

Nantes 0–0 Toulouse · Ligue 1

Nantes

WLWLD
0–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nantes and Toulouse drew 0–0.

Shots
116
Shots on target
33
Expected goals
1.050.35
Possession
59%41%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nantes and Toulouse drew 0–0. Recorded in this match (Nantes – Toulouse): shots 11–6, shots on target 3–3, expected goals 1.05–0.35, possession 59%–41%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nantes's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nantes's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.6 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7.6 shots/match10.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Nantes show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Nantes's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

10.2 shots/match ▲ShotsNantes · Toulouse11.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNantesToulouseBaseline
Shots10.2 shots/match11.9 shots/match12.1 shots/match
Shots against12.7 shots/match9.81 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Nantes have a visible home split

moderate

Nantes's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season10.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.1 shots/match10.2 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots6 shotsNantes 11 shots, Toulouse 6 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots3 shotsNantes 3 shots, Toulouse 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.05 xG0.35 xGNantes 1.05 xG, Toulouse 0.35 xG
  • Possession59%41%Nantes 59%, Toulouse 41%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersNantes 3 corners, Toulouse 5 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls11 foulsNantes 13 fouls, Toulouse 11 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Vincent Sierro · Toulouse · 12′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJoshua King · Toulouse · 34′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAugusto Douglas · Nantes · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Cozza · Nantes · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFrank Magri · Toulouse · 48′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 53′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohann Lepenant · Nantes · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNathan Zeze · Nantes · 81′ · 0.04 xG · on targetFrank Magri · Toulouse · 57′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJean-Charles Castelletto · Nantes · 41′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 55′ · 0.07 xG · on targetCristian Cásseres Jr. · Toulouse · 72′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 84′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMatthis Abline · Nantes · 59′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJoshua King · Toulouse · 48′ · 0.15 xG · on targetTino Kadewere · Nantes · 90′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMostafa Mohamed · Nantes · 65′ · 0.40 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nantes: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.02 xG. Toulouse: 6 shots, 3 on target, 0.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nantes 1.02 xG · Toulouse 0.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Nantes
2Draws
1Toulouse
Toulouse — Nantes · Ligue 10–0
Toulouse — Nantes · Ligue 11–2
Nantes — Toulouse · Ligue 11–2
Toulouse — Nantes · Ligue 10–0
Nantes — Toulouse · Ligue 13–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nantes favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Toulouse in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nantes31 matchesToulouse31 matches
1.13 goals/matchGoals scored31/31▲ 1.23 goals/match
1.61 goals/matchGoals allowed31/31▲ 1.26 goals/match
1.16 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲ 1.42 xG/match
10.2 shots/matchShots31/31▲ 11.9 shots/match
3.71 shots/matchShots on target31/31▲ 4.48 shots/match
39.3%Possession31/31● 45.2%
4.16 corners/matchCorners31/31● 4.81 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls31/3113.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 27 Apr 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNantesToulouse
CompetitionLigue 1Ligue 1 2024/25
Head-to-headNantes — Toulouse
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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