Ligue 1 · 2025Fri, 29 May 2026, 18:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Nice

DDLDD

4–1Full-time recap

Saint-Étienne

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Nice	Saint-Étienne
Shots	20 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Possession	51%●	49%
Corners	6 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Nice: 20 shots, 10 on target, 1.00 xG. Saint-Étienne: 13 shots, 2 on target, 0.93 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nice 1.00 xG · Saint-Étienne 0.93 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nice, Saint-Étienne. A second useful context is: Nice's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Nice, Saint-Étienne.

3 days▲Rest daysNice · Saint-Étienne3 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Nice	Saint-Étienne	Baseline
Rest days	3 days	3 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	1 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Nice have a visible home split

moderate

Nice's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.4 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Nice's recent record differs from the season

weak

Nice's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	13 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Nice

1Draws

0Saint-Étienne

26 May 2026Saint-Étienne — Nice · Ligue 10–0

21 Dec 2025Nice — Saint Etienne · Coupe de France2–1

1 Mar 2025Saint-Étienne — Nice · Ligue 11–3

20 Sept 2024Nice — Saint-Étienne · Ligue 18–0

11 May 2022Nice — Saint-Étienne · Ligue 14–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nice favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Saint-Étienne in 0 · 13 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 36/30.33 goals/match

1.69 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 36/31.33 goals/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/0—

1.71 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 34/0—

11.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 36/310.7 shots/match

14.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 36/312.3 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 36/31.33 shots/match

4.94 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 36/34 shots/match

46.7%Possessionseason · 36/3●52%

5.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 36/3●6 corners/match

5.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 36/35 corners/match

2.26 cards/matchCardsseason · 27/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 36/39.33 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 36/367%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 36/333%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nice34.2

Saint-Étienne60.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nice39.5

Saint-Étienne6.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nice9.7

Saint-Étienne58.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nice44.7

Saint-Étienne2.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nice55.7

Saint-Étienne7.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nice60.5

Saint-Étienne84.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nice47.4

Saint-Étienne27

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nice36 matchesSaint-Étienne3 matches

1.14 goals/match▲Goals scored36/30.33 goals/match

1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed36/3▲1.33 goals/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals34/0—

11.3 shots/match▲Shots36/310.7 shots/match

4 shots/match▲Shots on target36/31.33 shots/match

46.7%Possession36/3●52%

5.14 corners/matchCorners36/3●6 corners/match

2.26 cards/matchCards27/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls36/39.33 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nice18 matchesSaint-Étienne1 matches

1.28 goals/matchGoals scored18/1—

1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed18/1—

1.49 xG/matchExpected goals17/0—

13.4 shots/matchShots18/1—

4.67 shots/matchShots on target18/1—

46%Possession18/1—

5.56 corners/matchCorners18/1—

2 cards/matchCards15/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls18/1—

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

3 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited

Season samples36 / 3home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 3last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.
Recorded xG is incomplete, so xG context is omitted where unavailable.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: xg_for, xg_against, cards.
The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Fri, 29 May 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4