PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2–3.

Shots
129
Shots on target
75
Expected goals
1.741.03
Possession
48%52%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat TSG Hoffenheim 3–2. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 12–9, shots on target 7–5, expected goals 1.74–1.03, possession 48%–52%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots13 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13 shots/match ▲ShotsTSG Hoffenheim · Bayer 04 Leverkusen16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTSG HoffenheimBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots13 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against15.7 shots/match10.6 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

weak

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last-five shots average is below their season average.

13.8 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.8 shots/match16.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots9 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 12 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 9 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots5 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 7 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.74 xG1.03 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.74 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.03 xG
  • Possession48%52%TSG Hoffenheim 48%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 52%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 4 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3 corners
  • Fouls6 fouls10 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 6 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 10 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Marius Bülter · TSG Hoffenheim · 12′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 58′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 67′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 50′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 73′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFinn Ole Becker · TSG Hoffenheim · 14′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.04 xG · goalAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedVictor Okoh Boniface · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 10′ · 0.06 xG · on targetRobert Skov · TSG Hoffenheim · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRobert Skov · TSG Hoffenheim · 54′ · 0.06 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 50′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 87′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJonas Hofmann · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 25′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 70′ · 0.10 xG · goalAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 56′ · 0.18 xG · goalWout Weghorst · TSG Hoffenheim · 64′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 9′ · 0.49 xG · goalWout Weghorst · TSG Hoffenheim · 58′ · 0.93 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 12 shots, 7 on target, 1.79 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.01 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Anton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 56′Wout Weghorst · TSG Hoffenheim · 58′Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 9′Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 70′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 1.79 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.01 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1TSG Hoffenheim
1Draws
2Bayer 04 Leverkusen
TSG Hoffenheim — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga0–3
TSG Hoffenheim — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–4
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim10 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen10 matches
2.2 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲ 3 goals/match
1.9 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲ 1 goal/match
1.82 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲ 2.15 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots10/10▲ 16.3 shots/match
4.6 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲ 7.5 shots/match
47.4%Possession10/10● 59.7%
4.1 corners/matchCorners10/10● 5.6 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls10/109.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Nov 2023, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG HoffenheimBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Turn this match into a graphicReady-made from PitchMath data · No sign-up required