PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

TSG Hoffenheim 1–1 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 1–1.

Shots
1514
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
1.421.75
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

TSG Hoffenheim and 1. FSV Mainz 05 drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – 1. FSV Mainz 05): shots 15–14, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 1.42–1.75, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

TSG Hoffenheim's recent record differs from the season

weak

TSG Hoffenheim's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season2 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.6 goals/match2 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots14 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 15 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 14 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 4 shots, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.42 xG1.75 xGTSG Hoffenheim 1.42 xG, 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.75 xG
  • Possession54%46%TSG Hoffenheim 54%, 1. FSV Mainz 05 46%
  • Corners4 corners5 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 4 corners, 1. FSV Mainz 05 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls14 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 9 fouls, 1. FSV Mainz 05 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Tom Krauß · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 5′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 44′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 72′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 6′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobert Skov · TSG Hoffenheim · 23′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRobert Skov · TSG Hoffenheim · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Grillitsch · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 21′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEdimilson Fernandes · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 44′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · TSG Hoffenheim · 56′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 86′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Grillitsch · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 28′ · 0.05 xG · on targetLudovic Ajorque · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 62′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMarius Bülter · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 80′ · 0.09 xG · on targetMarius Bülter · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRobert Skov · TSG Hoffenheim · 48′ · 0.11 xG · goalLeandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 61′ · 0.11 xG · on targetMarco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′ · 0.18 xG · goalMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAymen Barkok · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 41′ · 0.29 xG · on targetMarius Bülter · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.39 xG · off target or blockedGrischa Prömel · TSG Hoffenheim · 45′ · 0.47 xG · on targetAymen Barkok · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 68′ · 0.82 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

TSG Hoffenheim: 15 shots, 4 on target, 1.60 xG. 1. FSV Mainz 05: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Robert Skov · TSG Hoffenheim · 48′Marco Richter · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 39′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: TSG Hoffenheim 1.60 xG · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1.80 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1TSG Hoffenheim
0Draws
31. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–0
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–0
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · 1. FSV Mainz 05 in 5

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim12 matches1. FSV Mainz 0512 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored12/121 goal/match
1.75 goals/match ▲Goals allowed12/122.08 goals/match
1.7 xG/match ▲Expected goals12/120.98 xG/match
13.1 shots/match ▲Shots12/1212.2 shots/match
4.67 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/123.58 shots/match
49.5% ●Possession12/1245.1%
4.17 corners/match ●Corners12/123.92 corners/match
10.2 fouls/matchFouls12/1214.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples12 / 12home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 26 Nov 2023, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG Hoffenheim1. FSV Mainz 05
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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