PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga

2–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2–3.

Shots
1119
Shots on target
37
Expected goals
0.92.3
Possession
32%68%

Full time

What the match recorded

Bayer 04 Leverkusen beat SC Freiburg 3–2. Recorded in this match (SC Freiburg – Bayer 04 Leverkusen): shots 11–19, shots on target 3–7, expected goals 0.9–2.3, possession 32%–68%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

SC Freiburg's recent record differs from the season

moderate

SC Freiburg's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.38 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.38 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

SC Freiburg have a visible home split

strong

SC Freiburg's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

SC Freiburg show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

SC Freiburg's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

11.8 shots/match ▲ShotsSC Freiburg · Bayer 04 Leverkusen17.7 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSC FreiburgBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots11.8 shots/match17.7 shots/match12.9 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match8.46 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots19 shotsSC Freiburg 11 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 19 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots7 shotsSC Freiburg 3 shots, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 7 shots
  • Expected goals0.9 xG2.3 xGSC Freiburg 0.9 xG, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.3 xG
  • Possession32%68%SC Freiburg 32%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 68%
  • Corners2 corners8 cornersSC Freiburg 2 corners, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 8 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls6 foulsSC Freiburg 13 fouls, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Christian Günter · SC Freiburg · 20′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Höfler · SC Freiburg · 28′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 8′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPiero Hincapié · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 30′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 2′ · 0.03 xG · goalMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 24′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Günter · SC Freiburg · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 58′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGranit Xhaka · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 86′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJonathan Tah · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAdam Hložek · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 52′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMerlin Röhl · SC Freiburg · 57′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRoland Sallai · SC Freiburg · 25′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedExequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 88′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 40′ · 0.08 xG · on targetAdam Hložek · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 73′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 73′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRitsu Doan · SC Freiburg · 10′ · 0.11 xG · goalJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 37′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedExequiel Palacios · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 45′ · 0.12 xG · on targetManuel Gulde · SC Freiburg · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 90′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedLucas Höler · SC Freiburg · 28′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 53′ · 0.15 xG · goalAdam Hložek · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 75′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedYannik Keitel · SC Freiburg · 79′ · 0.15 xG · on targetYannik Keitel · SC Freiburg · 79′ · 0.22 xG · goalFlorian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 82′ · 0.47 xG · off target or blockedAdam Hložek · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 40′ · 0.64 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

SC Freiburg: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.94 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 19 shots, 7 on target, 2.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ritsu Doan · SC Freiburg · 10′Yannik Keitel · SC Freiburg · 79′Florian Wirtz · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 2′Adam Hložek · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 40′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 53′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: SC Freiburg 0.94 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2SC Freiburg
1Draws
2Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–1
SC Freiburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — SC Freiburg · Bundesliga2–1
SC Freiburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: SC Freiburg favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 11

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

SC Freiburg26 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen26 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 2.54 goals/match
1.85 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 0.69 goals/match
1.5 xG/matchExpected goals26/26▲ 2.05 xG/match
11.8 shots/matchShots26/26▲ 17.7 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target26/26▲ 6.85 shots/match
45.6%Possession26/26● 63.1%
3.92 corners/matchCorners26/26● 7.04 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls26/268.88 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 17 Mar 2024, 18:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSC FreiburgBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-headSC Freiburg — Bayer 04 Leverkusen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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