PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2023

1. FSV Mainz 05 4–1 TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

4–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

1. FSV Mainz 05 won 4–1.

Shots
255
Shots on target
81
Expected goals
2.150.55
Possession
47%53%

Full time

What the match recorded

1. FSV Mainz 05 beat TSG Hoffenheim 4–1. Recorded in this match (1. FSV Mainz 05 – TSG Hoffenheim): shots 25–5, shots on target 8–1, expected goals 2.15–0.55, possession 47%–53%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent record differs from the season

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.03 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2.2 goals/match1.03 goals/match1.47 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

1. FSV Mainz 05 have a visible home split

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.5 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.5 shots/match14.2 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

1. FSV Mainz 05 show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

1. FSV Mainz 05's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.2 shots/match ▲Shots1. FSV Mainz 05 · TSG Hoffenheim13 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric1. FSV Mainz 05TSG HoffenheimBaseline
Shots14.2 shots/match13 shots/match13 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match17 shots/match14.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots25 shots5 shots1. FSV Mainz 05 25 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 5 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots1 shot1. FSV Mainz 05 8 shots, TSG Hoffenheim 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.15 xG0.55 xG1. FSV Mainz 05 2.15 xG, TSG Hoffenheim 0.55 xG
  • Possession47%53%1. FSV Mainz 05 47%, TSG Hoffenheim 53%
  • Corners9 corners3 corners1. FSV Mainz 05 9 corners, TSG Hoffenheim 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls14 fouls1. FSV Mainz 05 12 fouls, TSG Hoffenheim 14 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leandro Barreiro · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 60′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 3′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 22′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · TSG Hoffenheim · 36′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 49′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAnton Stach · TSG Hoffenheim · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 14′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Caci · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 22′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 33′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNadiem Amiri · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 50′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 51′ · 0.03 xG · goalJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJae-sung Lee · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 47′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAndrej Kramarić · TSG Hoffenheim · 49′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 58′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 41′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 1′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 16′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 41′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDominik Kohr · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 41′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Hanche Olsen · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 42′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 47′ · 0.10 xG · goalKarim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 88′ · 0.16 xG · goalPhillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 88′ · 0.31 xG · off target or blockedPavel Kadeřábek · TSG Hoffenheim · 19′ · 0.46 xG · goalBrajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 63′ · 0.73 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

1. FSV Mainz 05: 25 shots, 8 on target, 2.22 xG. TSG Hoffenheim: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.56 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Jonathan Burkardt · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 47′Phillipp Mwene · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 51′Brajan Gruda · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 63′Karim Onisiwo · 1. FSV Mainz 05 · 88′Pavel Kadeřábek · TSG Hoffenheim · 19′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.22 xG · TSG Hoffenheim 0.56 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

31. FSV Mainz 05
1Draws
1TSG Hoffenheim
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga1–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–0
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga4–1
1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga2–0
TSG Hoffenheim — 1. FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: 1. FSV Mainz 05 favored in 7 of 11 directional metrics · TSG Hoffenheim in 4

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

1. FSV Mainz 0529 matchesTSG Hoffenheim29 matches
1.03 goals/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 1.69 goals/match
1.62 goals/match ▲Goals allowed29/291.97 goals/match
1.28 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲ 1.53 xG/match
14.2 shots/match ▲Shots29/2913 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲ 4.45 shots/match
46.2%Possession29/29● 48.7%
5.52 corners/match ●Corners29/294.34 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls29/2910.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
Teams1. FSV Mainz 05TSG Hoffenheim
CompetitionBundesligaBundesliga 2023/24
Head-to-head1. FSV Mainz 05 — TSG Hoffenheim
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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