PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2024Fri, 10 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBorussia DortmundBayer 04 Leverkusen
Shots12 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match5 shots/match
Expected goals1.35 xG/match1.5 xG/match▲
Possession70%●30%
Corners6 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls8 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alejandro Grimaldo · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 63′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 5′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFelix Nmecha · Borussia Dortmund · 28′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 42′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJulian Brandt · Borussia Dortmund · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 1′ · 0.04 xG · goalJeremie Frimpong · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 44′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 70′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKarim Adeyemi · Borussia Dortmund · 54′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 12′ · 0.07 xG · goalSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 28′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 44′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedMaximilian Beier · Borussia Dortmund · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedDonyell Malen · Borussia Dortmund · 90′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 8′ · 0.39 xG · goalPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 19′ · 0.56 xG · goalPatrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 61′ · 0.60 xG · on targetSerhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 79′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Borussia Dortmund: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.39 xG. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 7 shots, 5 on target, 1.66 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Jamie Gittens · Borussia Dortmund · 12′Serhou Guirassy · Borussia Dortmund · 79′Nathan Tella · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 1′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 8′Patrik Schick · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · 19′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Borussia Dortmund 1.39 xG · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.66 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Bayer 04 Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen have a visible away split

moderate

Bayer 04 Leverkusen's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Borussia Dortmund show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Borussia Dortmund's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.8 shots/match▲ShotsBorussia Dortmund · Bayer 04 Leverkusen16.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBorussia DortmundBayer 04 LeverkusenBaseline
Shots12.8 shots/match16.4 shots/match12.7 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match10.4 shots/match14 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Borussia Dortmund
2Draws
1Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga1–1
Bayer 04 Leverkusen — Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga0–2
Borussia Dortmund — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga1–0
Borussia Dortmund — Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga2–5

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Borussia Dortmund favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Bayer 04 Leverkusen in 8 · 4 too close

1.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲2.5 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.44 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 16/16▲1.91 xG/match
1.3 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 16/16▲1.13 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/16▲16.4 shots/match
10.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/1610.4 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 16/16▲6.31 shots/match
4.19 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲3.81 shots/match
59.1%Possessionseason · 16/16●60.4%
5.06 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/16●6.88 corners/match
4 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.13 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/168.63 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%
94%Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1694%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Borussia Dortmund80.6
Bayer 04 Leverkusen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Borussia Dortmund54.6
Bayer 04 Leverkusen91.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Borussia Dortmund73.2
Bayer 04 Leverkusen82.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Borussia Dortmund2.8
Bayer 04 Leverkusen58.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund25
Bayer 04 Leverkusen13.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Borussia Dortmund58.3
Bayer 04 Leverkusen97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Borussia Dortmund44.5
Bayer 04 Leverkusen73.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Borussia Dortmund16 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen16 matches
1.88 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲2.5 goals/match
1.56 goals/matchGoals allowed16/16▲1.44 goals/match
1.55 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲1.91 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots16/16▲16.4 shots/match
4.5 shots/matchShots on target16/16▲6.31 shots/match
59.1%Possession16/16●60.4%
5.06 corners/matchCorners16/16●6.88 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.1 fouls/matchFouls16/168.63 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Borussia Dortmund9 matchesBayer 04 Leverkusen8 matches
2.44 goals/match▲Goals scored9/82.25 goals/match
1.22 goals/matchGoals allowed9/81.25 goals/match
1.85 xG/match▲Expected goals9/81.52 xG/match
15.6 shots/match▲Shots9/812.8 shots/match
5.44 shots/match▲Shots on target9/84.88 shots/match
60.4%●Possession9/854.4%
6.11 corners/match●Corners9/84.88 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.78 fouls/matchFouls9/89.25 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

19.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/120.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 10 Jan 2025, 23:45 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBorussia DortmundBayer 04 Leverkusen
CompetitionBundesliga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath